Thanks for the link waggie! I saw him on cnbc earlier, thought that, whatever his agenda, he made a couple of pertinent points and I wrote down his details to check him out later but I lost the scrap of paper.
If you're scalping for pennies, that's probably wise. Otherwise, it isn't a bad idea to stick your finger in the air to see which way the wind is belowing before pulling the trigger. If nothing else, it can help with judging position size relative to the direction of your trade.
As far as seasonality is concerned we are right on target for the next headfake break-out to the upside. I look forward to a very significant selloff in September - October. Not that Seasonality really accounts for anything but we have had some dreadful selloffs in October. Its not that the market has PMS or anything but that it just so happens that the market topped out in October. That's all. If the market topped in December we would see the market collapse in January. The market doesn't care about what season it is it only cares about supply and demand, buyers and sellers. If you really want to talk about seasonal tendencies and price/time differentials then all you have to do is measure the amount of current Bullishness in this market. The market is ripe for a selloff!!! The current forecasted levels on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures (These price targets change daily based on the previous days close) are the 1054.00 and 1071 levels !!!!!
Check out last week's Barrons ( which I rarely read anymore, it's become such a piece of garbage ) and look at the feature article by Randall Forsythe on PIMPCO's Bill Gross and Robert Arnott from First Quadrant. I believe that the both of them have been running some money in an "All-Asset" Fund which is up 18% on the year right now. In my opinion, Forsythe is the only talented business journalist still out there.
I'm just wondering if anyone here has at all taken a look at the job market. With all these great growth statistics and corporate earnings (cough..cooked books...cough), there is nothing but lay-offs. You cannot even hope to get a job in the finance or tech sector unless you have a top notch resume or hook ups. If these companies are doing so great and are in a turnaround, why don't they hire a few people instead of firing even more? I know none of those baboons on CNBC know what it is like being The Consumer, but I figured some of you are in the loop. In NYC, it is ridiculously hard to even get a restaurant job (unheard of 2 years ago), let alone a real job. A lot more vacant apartments in areas which used to be jam packed 2-3 years ago. A lot of closed stores, restaurants, butcher shops. I've seen some areas that were really coming up 2-3 years ago, go right back down with abandoned stores and buildings. On the upside, it is very easy to find a place to live at a reasonable price. All starts with the consumer. The beginning and the end of the loop comes from the average Joe Shmoe who has to spend the money in order for the rich to be rich. Money comes from the masses to the select few on top. But I do not know where the unemployed/underemployed Joe Shmoe is getting money besides credit cards and refinanced mortgage. More debt is not growth.
that's exactly how you get to preside over that much money. the only bigger chumps are the nitwits thinking they'll make good coin by adding their nickels to the pile.
Oh yeah well in that case why not start investing in every economy that has lay-offs left and right as well as growth based on debt. That should make you millions. Why didnt I think of that, it's such a win-win strategy. Seriously though, do you people really fall for this jobless recovery crap?
I'm bearish on the economy and bullish on the market. Allowing my macro economic view to cloud my feel for the tape has been death to me many times. Keep in mind, you're not trading Employment Futures, or Consumer Confidence Futures. Yes indeed, there can be a disconnect!