Moneyness, moron. The difference between touch and expiration probability. More goes into it than logging into your powerful sim account.
I'm not sure why you're getting aggressive. I said I'd make the bet. I'm not clear why there needs to be a handicap on it. You're the one making the initial claim. It sounds like you are certain in the claim, and want me to handicap your claim too? Straight up - it breaks it or not on a closing basis. It doesn't have to be anything other than a friendly $10k bet.