Hey man, I am trading on the daily charts for these positions, with a little 4hr/1hr action used for entries and adjustments. These are being scaled into with the idea of a long term move...but if I start seeing reasons to get out, then I will do so asap. Things can change at the drop of a hat in these markets bro. Good to hear from you BTW.
Glad to hear your trading is going well. I figured you we're working off orf the 4 hour fractal or maybe higher. I can't do the exotic cross-pairs but I can do the straight currencies. I'll show you some of my ideas this weekend when I'm in front of my trading computer and if you like'em I'll PM you the details.
Hey JJ that would be awesome. Looking forward to it! I also do some short term stuff, but it just seems to be a crapshoot right now to me. Not saying others aren't raking in the dough, but for me, there is just too much panic and manipulation right now in the ultra short fractals, aside from a few occasional exceptions. Not to mention with the bullshit I've been seeing from Oanda and hearing about with other bucketshops regarding increased slippage, spreads, manipulation, stop running, etc....trading a larger fractal is the logical option for me...they may can run the market their way in the very short term, but if you take a few steps back, they can't really do shit.
Ideally you have to use multple fractals, have a consistent method for determining the trend (any will do) and a method for determining when the market is moving in the direction of the trend (a p.a. based momentum approach is best imho). The real challenge lies in the risk/money management and psychology parts of the equation, deal with those and you'll be OK ... provided you are trading regulated markets, that is. Yeah, the unregulated markets are the bastion of bucket shops who love to make their loot off of unsuspecting scalpers who don't realize that game is rigged for them to lose. But if you're comfortable with a position trading approach that can work well for you.
I agree JJ good advice. I underestimated the amount of manipulation, spikes, etc on the smaller fractals until I started trading them. You don't see it on the charts after the fact that much, but somehow, magically price always spikes up to catch your stop...it gets to the point where your stop has to be so wide it is no longer viable to trade in a small fractal, as the potential reward for your setup gets so much smaller (relative to the risk you are taking from a wide stop). Since every broker gets to do whatever they want with price, you never know what to expect. I have a 3rd party datafeed and it's nothing to see oanda trading 15-20 pips away from my 3rd party feed....you won't see that in a regulated market. That should tell you something about how the game is rigged. Frankly, that's fine with me...gives me an excuse to crank up the ol' xbox360 and check on my daily, 4hr and 60m charts. Tick watching is a motherfucker and I like having something to distract me....the psychological benefit of not worrying about spikes, stop running, manipulation, etc is a definite relief. Generally on a larger fractal if price makes it to your stop you can be pretty confident it's not mere manipulation (at least by the dealer) and you should probably rethink your strategy...whereas if you're trading on a 5 min chart and using a 20 pip stop...you will never know for sure and probably be tempted to revenge trade. I can only speak for myself, but I prefer larger fractals. If I get into futs where there is regulation, I may start fooling around with the 5 and 15 min charts, etc...but for spot FX right now, it's asking to get your ass kicked. But then again, there are guys like cabletrader who kick ass on the ultra short timeframe. Funny how that works. But he beats the FX dealers at their own game....he is pretty much gaming the dealers. Definitely earns my respect for pulling that off.