So far these trades have been beating me up pretty bad. Massive retracements today...major trend still down, so that's the way I am betting for now. I may get slapped around by the market sometimes....but so far the rules haven't let me down.
A quick word regarding the purpose of this journal: I received a PM earlier from someone regarding setting up a C2 system to log/audit my trades for the journal. This made me want to go ahead and explain this to everyone- This isn't a journal for ego gratification or to prove anything. I started this journal for the purpose of talking shop with fellow traders, of course this will usually entail me posting my trades or at least my general directional bias....but I have no intentions of doing anything as extreme as C2 to log my trades. I'll try to post as much pertinent knowledge as possible, but frankly, I am too lazy to sit here and post every stop, entry, scale-in/out, etc. I'm just another trader grinding it out, not anyone trying to prove anything. Just here for the camaraderie and exchange of information/knowledge. I also wanted to mention I welcome viewpoints from all traders, not just FX guys like myself. Everything is essentially related anyway these days, so I'd be more than happy to hear anyone's opinions on equities, futs, etc. We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.
1/21/09 evening Hmmm.... Aud/jpy. Took a loss on this one...It was pretty big at first, but we had a good move back my way that allowed me to trade out of it with a small loss. More accurately, I closed half my position out with a small loss, and left the other half on. I am on the fence here with aud/jpy. The chart says to short, but it's hard to keep shorting when you are at (for all intents and purposes) all-time lows. Lost some conviction so I am short half a position from 58.74 Gbp/usd- still short, but again. Hard to keep going/stay short with price at all-time lows. In this kind of market you never know when you will get a violent countertrend spike. I am short eur/jpy with confidence. For now I am still bearish in the US equity market, and eur/jpy is a good proxy for that IMHO. I have a token short on usd/jpy, but not really convinced we are going to get too much more downside on this one. I could be wrong, but for now I am long enough jpy via eur/jpy. Starting to short usd/chf via scale in. It is a countertrend trade at this point, but momo looks like it's running out of steam via delta and a few other tricks I use.
Hey thanks brother! It helps me organize my thoughts, and also might help others get ideas for their own trading... I hope to get you back posting in here as well! If you see me doing anything stupid feel free to intervene. ha ha ha Have a good one bro, good trading. Could get wild with this whole new President thing and all. ha ha
Long term trades Also wanted to note that I have started a long term scale in long of eur/jpy and short usd/cad. Still bearish short term on US equities, but I'm thinking this is a good spot for starting a long term buying campaign. With oil being as insanely low as it is now, I figure it couldn't hurt to start going short usd/cad as a proxy for long crude. Moved some money over to a sub account started scaling in as of an hour ago or so.
Re: Long term trades: Wanted to add that I am also buying aud/usd and nzd/usd as a proxy for long gold. So the play so far is: Long: aud/usd eur/jpy nzd/usd Short: usd/cad Scaling in, going for the longball on these babies.
Changed my mind on the eur/jpy short. Stepping aside from now. Market keeps acting like it wants to go up and I won't stand in the way...but I don't have enough conviction to go long over the short term. Still like my short gbp/usd. Short usd/chf is on a tight leash, but again, I think the up trend is getting ready to roll over.
This is what I'm working with so far. Made a few changes here and there in my outlook, etc....so instead of trying to explain it all, I'll just post my positions for the time being.