That's what I'm saying. You can't buy S&P puts. The market may go down, but the Fed won't let it stay down.
Agree, they cant afford to let the markets go down and stay down thats why anytime the markets start to move in a downtrend immediate talk of QE3 starts to get louder and louder. No such thing as this market going down and staying down, again if it wasnt for the trillions of dollars that they pumped into the system the dow would still be trading under 7000. The next major selloff might take the dow back to a bit under 10,000, but thats about it. Market is going anywhere quick, if you miss any rally just be patient, the dow will stay in a trading range for a very long time.
because SP puts have expiration date and the volatility is extreme on the downside (good for time value) vs the upside (bad for time value). But, if u are a small trader, your silliest bet is trading without a proper Higher Education. More than 90% of small traders lose. They just lose!
A few minutes ago, the Dow was down 100 points , and the VIX was also down 2.5%! If the stock market goes down, calls for QE3, and other Fed actions, will increase. The financial markets will be supported at ALL costs. We could have the equivalent of the Irish Patato Famine where people are eating grass, but the stock market will NOT be allowed to decline.
========== Good points. Not that 1 week & 1 month uptrend [or downtrend] probabilities are the same as 1 year
I think that emotions are getting the best of you. As others have echoed in this thread, the downside risk to this market is ever present; yes it might only last a few days, few weeks, etc...but that doesn't mean that you can just go ahead and blindly sell puts (which is basically your argument, since you say that you can never buy S&P puts). 2008 notwithstanding, just last year there was a very acute decline during the political grandstanding over the debt ceiling. Yes, the market recovered and rallied relentlessly thru early 2012, but again if you had sold S&P puts around this time a year ago, you would have been killed.
people feel "smart" trying to out think the market... as if we are smart enough to know when a trend will stop and pick a high since you make more money on "fear" the most money you will EVER make, for the majority of retail investors, is of course BUYING they see a chart from 10 to 200 and get soo mad they missed the move from 100 to 200.... so if they sell 200 and buy 100, they feel vindicated. LOL and it goes to 300 and they blow their account up, again