EBIX reminds me of TEA. I should have made a lot of money betting against the deal (GS isn't as stupid as SBUX). I didn't. I did put a long-term short today after open. Not as attractive as betting against the deal (since the squeeze risk was much limited before) but still it might work out
Just had to cover here at 8.30ish. Daily chart looks oversold (great new pattern like situation) and short interest is high. Bounce risk is increasing a lot. Not seeing major panic selling yet but I will take safe profits. If it tanks more I will make money in the long side anyway (I will buy a huge panic)
Quiet here. I shorted some TEAR at 13.25 and XONE at 71 area Read analysis by people smarter than me that they are dogs Shorting some TLT here at 105 for longerterm, looks like beginning of a bear market for bonds, so this trade could last a while
Shorting NQ puts could be a potentially interesting BEARISH and bullish play at the same time. If they halt this thing, the Nov 18 puts are likely to expire worthless (it takes quite a while for a stock to trade again), if the stock squeezes you bank. IV is off the charts I'm considering this play Worst case scenario is the stock goes to $0 by Nov 18 (super unlikely) and you lose, but that IV compensates you for that by quite a bit
LPH took MONTHS to come back after the NYSE halted it and refused to unhalt, the SEC issued a suspension and the stock now trades on the grey sheets I believe the odds of SEC action by Nov 18 is already low (they need to investigate and that takes time), but even if they do that is GOOD for a put seller. If stock don't trade the OTM options will expire worthless. Of course, if the stock squeezes, (which is way more likely than SEC action in that time period), the put expires worthless as well
The last three MW china frauds were total flops for shorts (I know because I lost money on them), FMCN (bought out), FISN (bought out), EDU (rumored to have a buyers, squeezed like crazy). Shorting NQ at $8 is like shorting HLF at $30, you are hoping for government action during a crowded short trade and panic, usually that's a bad idea The fact that the puts bank even on gov action makes me think it is a good trade Risk: funds continue to liquidate and the new equilibrium price is something like $5-$6. That's why it is important to choose the strike and day to short well Just watching now
At $6 the puts I was considering (Nov $8) would break even (I almost shorted them at $2, now they are lower)so even in the bad scenario, it ain't so bad
So what happens to the options if they halt NQ for a long period of time? I like the short put idea. I think the odds of a squeeze are decent and the vol looks pretty good