Am hoping HLF will jump down again, so I can sell Feb puts. I covered the Jan puts - don't want Ackman to pull any "2 days before expiration nonsense" like Dec expiry. An OTM Bear Call Spread might be in order at 44+
From that article, "The excess, Starke wrote, could go to the equity holders; it would be worth around 80 cents a share." Either way, your strategy about waiting for the actual announcement sounds like a sensible idea. The trading in AAMRQ will likely be wild, whatever the eventual outcome for the equity.
John Hempton: new lengthy piece about HLF brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/2013/01/notes-on-visiting-herbalife-nutrition.html
Yeah, I read that. So Ackman missed some points but it seems that Hempton is missing as well. At some point HLF will run out of suckers to exploit for sub min wages What makes this short scary is the fact that it is a global empire of recruiting and exploiting people, its hard to stop and hard to predict these trends at the same time
Yes but it's unlikely (without regulator intervention) to collapse overnight. They just might experience a slow in the rate of sales growth, and then maybe a small decline. So for any long-term shareholder, it should be obvious when the global pool of people to exploit runs out. I do find the possibility of a short squeeze as another interesting chapter to this saga. It would be quite boring if HLF just disappeared from the news radar now that the company has delivered their defence.
today i put 1/3 of my intended short on HLF, if they come out with positive news, such as beat earnings, raise guidance, share buyback, etc, I will short more into the pop and get into my full intended position, which will be about 30% of trading account I'm also expecting Ackman to come out with a second attack, a detailed response to Herbalife's last analyst call, if this happens and stock drops, I will cover the existing short short
I shorted FMCN after the news The SECâs initial and follow-up information requests cover a broad range of documents and information related to the operations, finances and transactions of the Company and its subsidiaries, with a primary focus on the Companyâs (i) acquisitions, investments, restructurings and divestitures, including those transactions related to Allyes Online Media Holding Ltd. (âAllyesâ) (including (a) the management buy-out of a 38% ownership interest in Allyes from the Company in 2010, (b) the Companyâs subsequent sale of its remaining ownership interest in Allyes to one or more funds affiliated with or advised by affiliates of Silver Lake Management, L.L.C. in July 2010, (c) dividend payments and other financial and accounting aspects of Allyesâ business, (d) the Companyâs acquisition, restructuring and divestiture of its internet advertising subsidiaries and other variable interest entity affiliates, and (e) financial and accounting records pertaining to these transactions); (ii) disclosures, re-categorizations and operational data related to the LCD display network, poster frame network and movie theater business; (iii) corporate structure, including the use of wholly-foreign owned operating subsidiaries and variable interest entities; (iv) financial records and general financial condition; (v) director and officer compensation and relationships with Company affiliates and third parties; (vi) corporate governance and internal control practices; (vii) share offerings, including the secondary offering conducted on September 7, 2010, buy-backs, cancellations, and dividends; (viii) communications with various third parties, including Deloitte, Goldman Sachs and Fosun; and (ix) documents discussing or responding to some allegations made against the Company in the market.
I shorted some FMCN after that news .... and closed the position after seeing that there isn't much follow-through selling. The investigation was from March 2012: "On March 14, 2012, the SEC informed the Company that it was initiating a non-public investigation" http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1330017/000119312513017595/d461081dex99a1.htm so if anything further had progressed then presumably we would have heard about it. But I could be wrong on that and it will be interesting to watch if the SEC investigation turns out to be more serious.
I would think that if the SEC had closed or in any way validated the company in the investigation they would have mentioned that in the filling