The Shorting of Frauds, Overhyped and Bankrupt Stocks Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Jun 8, 2012.

  1. m22au

    m22au

    Yeah it really does depend on the individual situation.

    If you look at NEPT (Seeking Alpha) although it is up 18% today, it fell by a lot after the publication of the article.

    I doubt (and I could be very wrong) that what Ackman says tomorrow will move the stock by much. He will (as Zero Hedge point out) likely just reiterate the thesis put forward by David Einhorn.

    Late-to-the-party shorts will open positions. Bottom-fishers and shorts lacking conviction will buy. I agree that the weakness in HLF was noticeable since Friday's close. And as I mentioned above, it broke below 42.15 just hours before the report came out.
     
    #471     Dec 19, 2012
  2. Daal

    Daal

    I like Ackman, he is a smart man. I bet he has dug tons of stuff on the company that Einhorn didn't. He has been researching it for 1 year, I think this will be more than just the ponzi allegation. If it just was just pyramid stuff he would have shorted and announced sooner
     
    #472     Dec 19, 2012
  3. Daal

    Daal

    Covered ISRG, kept small position for the long run
     
    #473     Dec 20, 2012
  4. Daal

    Daal

    ISRG under $500, underestimated my own thesis. people liquidating like crazy
     
    #474     Dec 20, 2012
  5. Daal

    Daal

    Covered half of HLF. Stock should pop as Ackman speech gets close to the end
     
    #475     Dec 20, 2012
  6. Daal

    Daal

    Covered HLF. Predictable IMO
     
    #476     Dec 20, 2012
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Shorting AAMRQ, this might break the momemtum
     
    #477     Dec 20, 2012
  8. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    I covered my puts around 498. Small trade.

    Good call on this one Daal.
     
    #478     Dec 20, 2012
  9. shorted 1/4 position isrg 508.18
    shorted 1/8 position hlf 35.78

    still in 1/2 position aamrq from 0.817
     
    #479     Dec 20, 2012
  10. Daal

    Daal

    http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-ackman-short-herbalife-2012-12

    I have no intention of holding HLF short for the long-run. Pyramid schemes are a bitch to short. I was short PPD a few years back, similar thesis to HLF it seems, most people make no money yet that did not prevent them from finding idiots to buyout the stock at $70(I was in from $40-$50). FTC and other agencies never did anything

    It's hard to get these agencies to do things that might unemploy a lot of people, even if they would be better off if they did. The pyramid also can keep going for longer than you think, HLF has been around for 30 years. USNA had short reports going back for years, thousands of families got scammed by them yet the pyramid just keeps going(CFO and COO stepped down last week, this could be it for the company but I ain't betting on it)

    I would like to see his presentation but at first glance I wouldn't short this
     
    #480     Dec 20, 2012