Since 2006 every year has been 100MM plus. We'll see how things will unfold. Your additional short at 4 I think is decent. Your first short (presumably at 2.5) when you started posting bearish I think will be tough. I personally like my position with a breakeven of 3 and 4:1 odds on a positive outcome.
If KCG raises $400m at a discount to fridays close as CNBC indicates the investors will own at least 50% of the stock. If my thinking was correct they will get more like 75%+. 25% of a say $1B valuation the company had before will result in a $250M market cap, roughly a 40% decline in the stock price tomorrow But $1B is too rich given the new information about the risks of the business, plus the longs who thought they company would be bought at premium have to liquidate. Decline should be 50%+. More if the dillution is bigger
I would think that given Chapter 11 is likely if no deal is done, then investors can demand a 50% plus type discount. However that's just my guess and it really depends on how hard each side wants to push things. Negotiations get complicated and waste time if, as the CNBC article says, there are approx. 6 investors involved in the deal. It also isn't just about the conversion price of the securities. The interest rate on the bond matters as well - if KCG is paying (for example) 10% a year on $400 million, then that's another $40 million expense each year.
Very true, the interest costs decrease the value of the company for the folks without the convert bond. Citadel and KKR also walked out according to bloomberg. Its not looking good for the stock at all
Agree that it looks bad Citadel and KKR walked out, but you would think the reason why TD Ameritrade is one of the investors is because AMTD gets some (not sure how much) rebate income from market-makers such as NITE. AMTD (as a related business) is probably much more interested in doing a over-the-weekend deal than private equity. For all we know, ETFC, SCHW and IBKR could also be part of the investing group. AMTD is probably more likely to pay more than $2.50 a share today than a private equity buyer.
Cnbc is reporting a 440mm convert with 6 investors including amtd. But details are light. The fact that kkr and citadel bailed either is negative (things much worse) or positive (bidding more competitive than they are willing to pay)
$2.50 per share indicated by WSJ: "The consortium arrangement would center on debt that would convert into stock at $2.50 per share, heavily diluting Knight's existing shareholder base, the people said." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444246904577571113923528168.html "Knight Rescue Talks Focus on Convertible Debt" *** Current share count from 31 March 2012 10-Q 98,210,924 shares 160 million * $2.50 = $400 million Existing shareholders get 38% of diluted equity under this scenario. Indicative market cap of 258.21 million * $2.50 = $645 million