The Shorting of Frauds, Overhyped and Bankrupt Stocks Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Jun 8, 2012.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    I'm referring mainly to daytrading shorting here, I find that it helps slower traders, people who don't have bloomberg terminals or price action alerts. You have plenty of time to get in shorting because the adjustment is not made right away(Since short sellers can't short at will). It also helps people that trade small size since its easier for you to get your order filled

    It fits my personality because it makes the trend really predictable and steady but those are just a few impressions, I could be wrong
     
    #101     Jul 18, 2012
  2. Daal

    Daal

    I'd note that if a stock in the index doubles I will probably cover and wait till it loses strength before shorting again
     
    #102     Jul 18, 2012
  3. m22au

    m22au

    #103     Jul 19, 2012
  4. Daal

    Daal

    #104     Jul 19, 2012
  5. m22au

    m22au

    I haven't read the Muddy Waters report in full, but the thing that jumps out at me immediately is that EDU issued a statement that was very short compared to the 97-page report. ie, they probably didn't address every issue raised by MW.
     
    #105     Jul 19, 2012
  6. Daal

    Daal

    EDU shows how important to read market action correctly. The reaction had little to do with people believing the rebuttal. It was more like short covering followed by a momentum trend(probably exacerbated by HFT and algos)
     
    #106     Jul 19, 2012
  7. Daal

    Daal

    MS might an example of how no uptick rule affect a stock with bad news. Short sellers wacked the bid all day, the stock reached a level where it attracted value buyers, they jumped in after the stock got upgraded and now are reversing the stock. If there was an uptick rule there, the adjustment might have taken longer and the short sellers would not be able to just jam the stock down all day long. The value buyers wouldn't jump in because their levels wouldn't have been reached

    Small sample here but these are just some observations
     
    #107     Jul 19, 2012
  8. m22au

    m22au

    More EDU stuff

    * Bloomberg interview with Carson Block
    (after the 19 July close in New York; duration 4 mins 19 secs)
    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/carson-block-targets-new-oriental-LXdGNzaxSyqW3b1VC9MZag.html

    This interview only really covered the franchising aspect of the report. Block's thesis was as follows:

    (1) Company previously strenuously denied franchising arrangement
    (2) Company backflipped and admitted in recent PR that it does have some franchises
    (3) Therefore if it lied about the non-existence of franchises, it may also be lying about the number of company-owned centres (versus number of franchises)

    * Interview with Michael Yu, CEO of EDU:
    http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/20120720/031112620145.shtml
    http://translate.google.com/

    * (shorter) Interview with Michael Yu, CEO of EDU.
    http://www.morningwhistle.com/html/2012/China_Stocks_0719/213133.html
    Alternative:
    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/S...w?m=tm&bn=51424&tid=3239&mid=3239&tof=4&frt=2

    * This article discusses the change to the VIE that took place in January but was only disclosed in July
    http://english.caixin.com/2012-07-19/100412800.html
     
    #108     Jul 20, 2012
  9. m22au

    m22au

    Daal

    It looks like there may have been a EDU conference call after the market close, given the number of new tweets from Muddy Waters:

    https://twitter.com/muddywatersre

    Do you have any details about a transcript or audio of the call?
     
    #109     Jul 20, 2012
  10. Daal

    Daal

    What I like about EDU is that the government is already looking at the company. At FSIN I got hurt because even though the company is a total fraud, investors never found out and then they found a crony banker to finance the takeout of the company, I still own puts there but its likely they will expire worthless. FMCN too, has fraud in its books but it might take quite a while for the market to find out

    With EDU all it takes is a couple sentences from the SEC and the stock will be at the pink sheets and collapsing huge

    An additional catalyst is the fact the SEC has sparred with the auditor of EDU a few times in the past. This just makes it more likely the SEC will halt trading
     
    #110     Jul 20, 2012