The Short Report

Discussion in 'Journals' started by michaelscott, Jul 14, 2007.

  1. Sure she did. It was 2002 sometime over the summer. The market was encountering a classic crescendo bottom and only 92 stocks on the entire Nasdaq composite were traveling over their 50 day moving average.

    The news on CNBC was bad and it just got worse everyday. Everyone was shorting and buying puts, it almost appeared to be the perfect storm, blood in the streets. Then Maria comes out on television stating something to the effect of "Why doesnt everyone just short the market?" I did google several variations to try to find her exact words. I remember it, but somewhat vaguely.

    This is a great lesson in market bottoms. When a large majority of stocks are trading under their 50 day moving average, then a bottom is probably near.

    Look at this chart. Only 92 companies were trading over their 50 day moving average at that time in history.

    I was listening on Bloomberg radio and you can read the article. The expectation appears for stocks to drop in the next 6 months which is not a big surprise.

    There are a few key charts that I use to examine when the market is ripe for shorting. The 50 day moving average chart is very telling and has predicted market tops and bottoms many times in the past. When the 50 day moving average chart hits a notable top, then its time to short.

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/16/bloomberg/bxstocks-web.php
     
    #11     Jul 16, 2007
  2. I monitor www.tradertim.blogspot.com aggressively. I sometimes copy his ideas as its profitable to plagerize at times. Baker Hughes (BHI) seems to be a rich short play.

    The stock failed to bust through all time highs set over a year ago in June. Now it seems to be pulling back in frustration.

    Puts, puts, puts...
     
    #12     Jul 16, 2007