The Seven Stages of an Elderly Toolie Trader

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by Arthur Deco, Mar 20, 2010.

  1. Stage One: The market is just a fucking online slot! When it's hot, you pull the handle! When it's not, you go to the bar and hit on the cocktail waitresses!

    Stage Two: There is an underlying rational mathematical predictable order in the market captured by classical technical analysis.

    Stage Three: Classical technical analysis is so overused by the crowd and passe that it is faded by the smart money, so fade the crowd.

    Stage Four: The market is so complicated that I can't hope to understand it. I need to pay a nationally-recognized guru to teach me in his seminars with chatroom follow up.

    Stage Five: The bigtime gurus are all frauds who just want my money. I need to follow an altruistic non-charging guru like Jack, who only wants to help me.

    Stage Six: All gurus are frauds! I will be my own guru and backtest unconventional trading ideas!

    Stage Seven: The market is just a fucking online slot! When it's hot, you pull the handle! When it's not, you go to the bar and hit on the cocktail waitresses!
     
  2. Two suggestions for you --

    1) Maybe there is an underlying order that can be reasonably modeled. But maybe different markets require different models and the trick is knowing when to switch.


    2) You can't model and backtest everything. There is something to be said for for discretionary trading in that you can process news events, their importance, the mood of the market, etc. I don't believe you can effectively systematize those things.
     
  3. J.P.

    J.P.

    Excellent. Thanks, Art.
     
  4. omnpmh

    omnpmh

    Does "toolie " mean "gun"?