I don’t know. One side of me says nah and the other side says ask Joe Biden if a debate can make or break an election. I think you are right that it is about Harris though if for no other reason than Trump is expected to be a lying pig and no one will bat an eye. If you go with the polling, Harris will be targeting suburban white women. Black women have decidedly moved to her in support but she is coming off her initial high with white women. Two issues move white women, crime (this includes illegal border crossings) and education which includes school safety. This is where I will be looking for her make or break moments. There is also the Afghanistan withdrawal that Harris will have to tango with. I know there is the economy trope. One of my closest friends complains about the economy and he has taken 3 vacations and bought a Tesla this year. Yeah, tough economy. I don’t buy it. Unpopular opinion. I get it, I just don’t see it. Trump on the other hand may have to deal with a prosecution of his criminal and debaucherous behaviors. Let’s see if she asks him about what he did on Epstein Island why he wished Gislaine Maxwell well. That would be quite the sight to see.
Honestly she just needs to do a Ronald Reagan, “there you go again” to all his lies. After he speaks constantly remind Americans the criminal fraudster is lying again, because if the past debate is a predictor of this debate then almost every answer will be a lie. And remind women that he was found liable for rape. Describe what he was accused of doing. Suburban women are a key swing voting demographic. That’s where playing prosecutor can be most beneficial.
Kamala has one chance and that is to surprise us. If she comes out the dunce we expect, stumbles and fumbling through questions, gets defensive or appears hurt, this charade is over, she's done. However, if a person we don't expect shows up, on point, sharp, in command of herself and the situation, that will canipulte her to a lead which is sustainable for a couple months leaving Trump on the ropes hoping for a major gaffe.