The secret to buying pre earnings straddles

Discussion in 'Options' started by TheBigShort, Aug 9, 2018.

  1. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    EL! Bloomberg's algo is estimating DDS earnings to be on AUG 23rd!!!! I'm selling aug 17 and buying the back month
     
    #71     Aug 10, 2018
  2. I will hold off on DDS for now until it is clearer the date. There is an AUG 24 weekly as well right?
     
    #72     Aug 10, 2018
  3. My approach of buying straddles before earnings has very low risk. Average loser is around 10% and it is very rare to lose more than 15-20% (happened I believe once in 2017 and once in 2018, and never more than 25%).

    We have higher risk strategies as well, and the risks are always fully disclosed.

    When you hold through earnings, you have no way to limit the loss if the stock gaps. The only way to control risk when holding through earnings is by limiting your position sizing and always assume a 100% loss.

    But I agree that if I was forced to do it, I would do it with calendars, not naked straddles. With calendars your risk is at least limited to the debit you paid. With naked straddles (or strangles) you can easily lose few times the credit you got.
     
    #73     Aug 10, 2018
    Jeff1228 and vanzandt like this.
  4. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    Yea the spreads are so wide tho yikes
     
    #74     Aug 10, 2018
  5. I also have a calendar on UNIT who announced yesterday, not sure I posted it so cannot go back and look at pre and post vols... maybe you can check Biggie?
     
    #75     Aug 10, 2018
  6. Kim's last post is what I mean by free(ish) gamma rent. IVTrader made a science out of this years ago. Alex u around? If you can chart a straddle, you can sense when it has stopped going down as it embarks on the "IV ramp"
     
    #76     Aug 10, 2018
  7. Yes. I had an article on Seeking Alpha a while ago:
    The key is to identify stocks where straddles keep value well, and enter at favorable prices.

    Like we did with SYY this cycle:

    [​IMG]

    Closed two iterations of straddles for 11-13% each (total gain of 24%, with very low risk).
     
    #77     Aug 10, 2018
  8. Kim.. been a while since I looked at this. So this only comes into play during earnings season which means what like 4 months of the year you got something to do? Your article says it is possible 10% per month.. don't you mean 10% per month for the 4 months you are engaged in this earnings strategy? Thanks in advance.
     
    #78     Aug 10, 2018
  9. Not necessarily.

    We have the biggest number of earnings releases during the first month of each cycle, but it doesn't mean rest of the time there are no earnings. This month (which is the second month of the quarter) we already traded CSCO, SYY, HD, LOW, TGT, NVDA, PKNG, NTES, HPQ, TSN, WMT and more. Third month of each quarter usually has NKE, BUD, MU, FDX, AVGO, ULTA, TIF and more. In fact, this year May was our most active month, we closed 18 trades for an overall portfolio gain of 19.1%.
     
    #79     Aug 10, 2018
    options_fanatic likes this.
  10. I was referring to closing it before earnings.
     
    #80     Aug 10, 2018