This is way too early for few reasons: 1. IV increase rarely starts before 20-30 days before earnings. 2. The negative theta will start to hurt the trade right away. 3. If you go that far (~3 months), the effect of positive gamma will be pretty small. 4. For most stocks earnings date is not confirmed that early - usually it is few weeks in advance.
I took this to be sarcastic humor and was shocked that everyone else believes you're serious - are they correct?
El it looks like our strat would have worked. Sell the straddle on M close first thing in the morning and then open a new long straddle to take the intraday move. I mean everyones hindsight book is up 1000% but I think we broke it down pretty good.
M straddle implied 9.3% move as of yesterday close. It is now down 14%. How selling a straddle was a good move?
Do you have access to r/t quotes? The shares were above $38 during the first 30 minutes of trading. TBS nailed it. Pre-report straddle was down in price and the post-report straddle is up. Other than precognition--he couldn't have predicted the move any better. Keep clowning.