My best guess is this will continue lower until the debt ceiling issue is taken care off and if it's not taken care of, well...
Why are we going lower? I wish you're right, but fear you're wrong. Probably going to see the mother of all reversals when the debt ceiling is increased for the 100th time.
My reasons are technical. News is Kabuki Theater to me. If its relevant enough it will show up in the charts. Fed days are the one exception I make sure I'm flat before and after announcements for a set time. We'll see 4225 on ES at some point - but I'm still expecting to hit the 3640-3860 range before its all said and done (which seems to be in line with Volente's range).
I'm mostly a technical trader myself, but certainly some news items matter - and I imagine a 20 % + correction would be geared towards some type of news for sure. I'm pretty sure we'll see a good sized rally as soon as this debt ceiling drama is out of the way. Like I said - I hope you're right, but fear you're wrong.
Market looks very resilient . 3 plunges down to the 4260-80 area and everyone bought hard . Were sitting at 4370 a mere 4% off ath’s . I have no idea where mkt goes nor does anyone else . But for 6 weeks of such negativity after 110% run we ain’t down shit .
I have no idea what this month will bring but the longer we get through it without significant downside the more confidence I have in a late year rally from roughly November-January. My guess is the next rally tops out in the 5000-5100 area on the SPX and sometime before April 2022 ( possibly by mid-January in some scenarios ). While 3400-3600 that several are forecasting is not impossible, it's highly improbable given the economic growth, profit growth, and low interest rates.