So how should someone look at it if not technically? Imo, one should look at it technically, the other way is emotionally (I think, I feel, I believe) or maybe fundamentally (Coronavirus is gonna decimate the earth and the financial markets). Ya, look where that ended up, markets booming and everyone is healthy (flu basically non existent).
As I posted a while ago, the bears should have covered short term and at this point it is a purely emotional trade for him ( as it is for Ken on his "swing" trades ). From a technical point of view, the markets are going up. But I'm a fundamentals guy first and from that standpoint certain portions of the market are clearly bullish ( eg some Cdn energy stocks are piling in the cash and have to do nice things now like increase share buy backs, increase dividends, reduce debt ). It doesn't matter what US indexes do to me and all the cynics on here are pure noise 90% of the time and not constructive noise at that. I've said this many times, If there are people who want to short broader markets because they think they are "overvalued" ( sure, some areas are ), then why have they not been heavily long value plays ? Because in late 2020 there were oodles of them at ridiculously low prices. And many still remain cheap because their cash flows are growing rapidly. And yes, I posted about many of them in 2020 and most traders were indifferent or complained that the stocks hadn't kept up with some speculative IT or small cap stocks. From November 2020 forward, the stocks I liked have easily outperformed most other options including QQQ. High growth and momentum US stocks can be expensive; value stocks, commodity based businesses, and certain areas of the world are anywhere from cheap to slightly discounted now.
I cannot know if this is a top, because I am not long. If I were, it would crash. Being an outside observer looking in, I have no idea, hehe.
FA says this will be a great quarter for the January earnings, so go long now. That 2-day power outage this week really messed up my mojo.
Considering all the doomsday experts, this has been surprisingly one of the better Octobers, Santa rally season coming shortly.
So you see a 1000 point drop in SP in the next next 3 months. That's a ~23% drop. Why do you see that? By what metric?