Sorry, a 55%-60% bullish sentiment does not strike me as high bullish sentiment. I am sure your comment has nothing to do with today's move ! Time will tell, man , time will tell. Still 24 trading days to go.
the key phrase is "strike me". It may not strike you, but historically, 55-60% bullish sentiment is quite high. It rarely gets over 60%. And yes, with bullish sentiment that high, that alone causes declines like today.
Whatever you say, Master Thorn. By looking at the results of your poll, I still do not see this "high" bulishness. As far as the year-end performance of the S&P is concerned, I will just say, It Ain't over until it's over ! Also, just for the sake of clarity, I am a systematic trader. My systems will tell me what to do. "Amazingly" my current open long positions are only 60% of my capital employed versus 100% last week. If the VIX remains extended like today, I should move to 100% pretty soon. It is not a prediction, just following my rules.
Master?? i'm not michael richards. high bullishness is always defined as over 55% according to the main sentiment polls that are widely accepted on Walll st. Obviously, today the above poll results have changed, but it was close to 60% bullish as of last night.
no more predictions, the windows have closed. If i win this again, I will have bucked odds of 1 in 400 against. Incredible.
btw, i guarantee that the s&p has just made an intermediate term top on 11/22. and will not see that level for many months.
thorn i have been away for a few days and just noticed this thread.... so its to late for me to vote... but what is amazing is the mumber i had in mind was just 2 points below yours. i didnt post it cause it just looks way too much that im copying you... and im not. I think the last time we did this i also was very very close to your level. It just amazed be to see you call it so close to what i have in mind.
not surrpising at all lilduckling. You finished in 2nd last year, so i'm not surprised at all that we're thinking alike again. You have also been bullish in the last few months, so i'm happy to see that you think we're going sideways in dec. good luck!