The S&P put in another short term bottom on April 11

Discussion in 'Trading' started by volente_00, Apr 11, 2006.

Did the S&P just put in another short term bottom on April 11 at 1283 ?

  1. Right on, see you shorties at 1334.

    32 vote(s)
    53.3%
  2. The last 4 calls were pure luck, we are going much lower than 1283.

    28 vote(s)
    46.7%
  1. volentes a decent trader,
     
    #271     May 6, 2006
  2. 1000

    1000

    No, Volente_00 is leading everyone up the garden path for this mid term election, drumming up votes.

    Dollar index is down 5% since Feb06. Spx is up 3.5%, Inflation is up 0.5% and you also have to add in tax 0.5%.

    So, for a 3.5% up move subtract 5%, 0.5%, 0.5% i.e. 6%. Giving Volente_00 and the index bulls a return on capital of -2.5%.

    You're still negative until 1340, and then you will still be negative then because add on another 0.5% for inflation and 0.5% for tax. With possible further dollar weakening. With further interest rate hikes to stem inflation, and the dollar decline.

    Your total return on capital so far is -25 points. Suggesting Spx at 1300.

    This GOP drive sucks. It is only making every American poorer. Don't get fooled by Volente_00 and the Republicans.
     
    #272     May 7, 2006
  3. 1000

    1000

    Even if you went back 1year, your still under performed 10 times.

    1 year gold index is up 64%, while Spx and Indu are only up 6%.

    Why 1 year, because the dollar index was at the same level 1 year ago. So we can discount it.

    However, still include tax 2% and inflation annuallized at around 3.5% (looking at average hourly earnings as forward inflation expectation).

    So Spx up 12% - 5.5% = 6.5%. And Indu up 12% - 5.5% = 6.5%.

    So you underperformed by a factor of about 10. With the last 3 months at -2.5%.

    And you still don't know what arbitrage price action volume is.
     
    #273     May 7, 2006
  4. boy, you are a contrarian.....

    it is well known that indexes are for ladies. I like the big index up days because:

    -Large funds play the indices which provides buoyancy for my sector plays.

    -you can spout as much bearish-propaganda as you wish - fact is the bulls are making cash, and the talented ones will scale out and reverse their positions as the market turns bearish.

    -fight the trend all you want - we'll be making money all the while...

    -data can be made for any side of an argument - you can quote percentages all day long, as can i. i'm up 350% from my feb. basis.
     
    #274     May 7, 2006
  5. 1000

    1000

    No one makes money in an inflation driven environment with dollar weakness.

    If you have 350% up, can you say you have been a bullish investor since Feb06.

    Indices are driven by underlying equity investment, and their insurance hedge, not by gambling on market moves.
     
    #275     May 7, 2006
  6. 1000

    1000

    Anything is for ladies, unless you know how to write. Clearing houses don't clear for ladies. Do you know how to clear, or just gamble?

    Have you got what it takes to be a man?

    Oh! I also forgot to add interest to my above bull rot (sudden series of unaccountable failures). 5% lending, add on a couple more % for retail. Factor that into your capital management.

    And 350% up isn't going to be enough to buy your pension. So you might as well feel good about socking it to the pathetic GOPs.
     
    #276     May 7, 2006
  7. dammm....for somebody that has traded a whole 12 months and keeps asking opinions of other traders in this website about your positions, you sound really convincing...:D

     
    #277     May 7, 2006
  8. volente_00

    volente_00



    I make 100% min every week trading ES using 500 dollar day trade margins. I am not republican.
     
    #278     May 7, 2006
  9. i always like to hear opinions on my positions - i'm not naieve enough to think i'm the shit.
     
    #279     May 8, 2006
  10. bump.



    calling a top is still a suckers game. :cool:
     
    #280     May 9, 2006