The S&P is looking very toppy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by James Stock, Jan 15, 2004.

  1. I think that you are on the right track, and the best way to play this market is not try and call a top, like most of the so-called "top-pickers" on this site, but instead to watch your moving averages, fib retracements, and use stops, befriending the trend.

    First of all, interest rates have been coming down pretty hard here, despite the CONSENSUS that has been looking for them to increase, along with the Economy this year. In fact, the 10-year note has declined from a yield of 4.40% just two weeks ago to 3.97% as of today; this is yet another great support for the equity market.

    Secondly, the Dollar looks like it is trying to BOTTOM here and that could really bring the Euros into our Equity Markets, big time, giving us the next push up in the S&P. Anyone take a look at the BP or Swissy the last couple of days?

    Meanwhile, the commodity complex ( aside from the grains ) looks like it may have just put in a top as well. Gold and Silver have puked the last couple of days, along with most metals stocks, and the Natural Gas chart put in such a nasty double-top that it crashed 10% in one day, today, and looks to have had the worst weekly decline in history, even though the Northeast is totally frigid.

    While some of the "top-pickers" on this board have sounded like BROKEN CLOCKS, chiming away every 25 handles, starting at 1050, the professionals are much more tuned-into the fibonacci's, which as you know call for much higher numbers. A fifty-percent retracement of the decline from the S&P highs of 2000 doesn't come into play until 1160 or so, and the 61.8% number doesn't even come in to play until 1253. Even the biggest Gloom & Doomers like Bob Prechter admit that some of these Wave 2 retracements can go to a .786 fib retracement. That would give us the 1380 area.

    Sure, we could have a "correction" at any time and it might be sharp and short. But unless we drop back below 1115 on a Daily basis and 1102 on a Weekly basis, I'm willing to buy dips.

    :)
     
    #31     Jan 15, 2004
  2. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Waggie, for once I agree with you on something. This market is going to 11,300 to 11,500 by March. Write it down. Markets don't get any stronger then this. They really don't. You are on the right side.......for once. Ha!
     
    #32     Jan 15, 2004
  3. I feel warm and fuzzy ALL over!!!

    P.S. Notice how I have tried to stay out of Chit-Chat, aside from my last post on the thread "Gotta Love The NFL".

    :p
     
    #33     Jan 15, 2004
  4. Pabst

    Pabst

    Given the continually low put/call ratio, it appears that the abundant shorts in calls are getting hammered. Anyone think this is an options related squeeze and that after expiration there's a vacuum one way or the other?
     
    #34     Jan 15, 2004
  5. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    Pabst, from what I am hearing, there is a very heavier then usual amount of buy writing going on right now. Long the underlying and short the calls. They keep rolling their calls up as the index goes higher. Don't expect anything meaningful to happen after expiration except the market will go higher!
     
    #35     Jan 15, 2004
  6. TD80

    TD80

    I think you might be on to something pabst. I've been monitoring january open interest carefully, and I think after options expiry we may see more pressure on the market. This is just a hypothesis, I have not been overnight in the market for well over a week, I don't like what I'm seeing for the bulls but that is the trend, and I trade with the trend. So I get to sit on the sidelines until I see bearish developments, or this market settles down a bit. I'm not advocating top calling, but I would ask bulls "where were you 9 months ago when you SHOULD have been going long?" How many have been converted to stomping bulls over the last 9 months?

    Goodluck,
     
    #36     Jan 15, 2004
  7. A rumor circulated earlier today thru the currency markets that Osama Bin Laden had been captured, thus giving the Dollar an extra push. . . . Gee, I sure wouldn't want to be SHORT any Naked S&P Calls!

    March S&P Globex: 1135.00 Last . . .
     
    #37     Jan 15, 2004
  8. Sorry nolan-vinny-sam. You whined and cried, yet couldn't get the S&P to open above 1140. Maybe you can use your big account and buy 100,000 futures right now.

    OTHERWISE, the S&P 1140 are expiring WORTHLESS. And at 9:35am, i'll confirm that they EXPIRED worthless.

    Lastly, I see 1148.1 as a key figure. Look for massive resistance around 1148-1150, and that's where the top is. That's the maximum.
     
    #38     Jan 16, 2004
  9. ...is not good for a trader's state of mind... Forget about it!
     
    #39     Jan 16, 2004
  10. you're right! Trading is suppose to be fun!

    The 1140 calls did EXPIRE worthless. That's old news now.

    Looking at 1148-1150 as major resistance. There's the top.

    Bye.
     
    #40     Jan 16, 2004