The S&P is looking very toppy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by James Stock, Jan 15, 2004.

  1. #21     Jan 15, 2004
  2. No doubt.... if you can close your eyes and BUY.

    best,
    david
     
    #22     Jan 15, 2004
  3. Jeffo

    Jeffo

    I've taken out a second mortgage and maxed the credit cards. I hope you're right.
     
    #23     Jan 15, 2004
  4. Now are you guys talking about futures or cash options ? I thought JS talked about cash ... these did expire now.
     
    #24     Jan 15, 2004
  5. If I am really, really right the Dow and SP are going to make marginal new highs this yr..like 1625 and 12500....

    I keep keying off 1970-72..only time in last 30 years you had deep bear , (3 down yrs in row) then election cycle and war, low rates etc and good gold..so far so good, on that front avg gain in election is 44% for 42 yrs....for 2 yrs up to election...

    If in fact this is 1987, then you might be buried! ;gain was 6% into 1988

    Last time you had good stocks, low ylds, weak buck; and decent gold was 1987..or 1970-72..that rally was worth 55%..bare min.

    So that gets you min 1180-90 (post 9/11 highs) to 1260..depending on intraday low or close..and if all hell breaks loose.... new highs..latter is not likely, former is..

    I called for 1145 on 6/03/03 ..and got laughed off the site..so be careful...and good luck

    Best bud,
    david
     
    #25     Jan 15, 2004
  6. Pabst

    Pabst

    Hey James!

    Could you discuss what looks toppy?
     
    #26     Jan 15, 2004
  7. If I wasn't nimble, I would have had my head handed to me long ago.

    You see which way i'm tilted, and I survived the nasdaq 85% runup of 1999. I have to be nimble! I actually made money in 1999!
     
    #27     Jan 15, 2004
  8. This is a tough call Pabst because, AFAIC, most have ruined it for themselves on this board, and don't deserve my insights.

    But you do, so I will say this. The odds favor it happening soon (>50%), some because of excessive sentiment. We retraced about 1/2 the 700 point S&P drop around this level. Volatility has to pick up soon. It's earnings season. And there's real politics to be done this year. And rates aren't going lower. That's a few.

    Good luck. I thought you were a lukewarm bear?
     
    #28     Jan 15, 2004
  9. Sounds good to me!

    keep it up

    Best,
    david
     
    #29     Jan 15, 2004
  10. Really??

    Please forigve nolan-vinny-sam, he did not take his lithium this evening. Therefore, he doesn't understand the difference between the word "expiring" and "expired". They closed at .90?!? O.K. I've got 1,000 @ .90 for sale!

    repeat: I've got 1,000 @ .90 for sale! Heck I got 1,000 @ .50 for sale? Any takers? If the price closed @ .90, why am I offering @ .50?
     
    #30     Jan 15, 2004