top is in now, today was key as dip buying finally ended after another failure at 1150 spoos. Specialists have size to sell in their pockets over the next week or so.....bullets would come in handy now
Wait till the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony early next month before Alan really says something . . . Until then, we have the G7 meeting in Boca Raton on Feb. 7th. Alan speaks the following week, on the 11th I think. I haven't checked on this officially, but it appears that the short-end of the curve has already priced in a 50 to 75 basis point tightening come August of this year.
If you think there will be a rate increase before the election, I have some oceanfront property in Kansas to sell you. There's zero chance that there will be a rate increase before this election.
Here is a chart of Fed Funds going into the last Presidential election in 2000 for those who don't think rates can go up until after the election.
A PM from Waggie945... ---------- RE: James Crock-Stock . . . Hey There, So what do you think of yoru good "buddy" James now??? LOL!!! Waggie ----------- Well, Waggie945, I'm not sure why you PM'd me this message; I think I had a response or two very early in the thread. So, you prompted me to look at the last few days of posts, and I still don't get it (why you thought of me to PM). I'm not an options trader, so I speak from ignorance... none-the-less, time will tell, i.e,. in a couple of weeks we'll know if the top is in for the SPX. James will either sell, or close--or whatever--his options, or there will come a time that they expire. At that point, if he does not claim they're closed, then one can assume he held them to expiration. Are they in the money or out? Time will answer that question (again, I'm pretty ignorant about options). I really don't watch SPX anyway; I usually trade SMH semiconductors holders, and they're looking pretty sick now. If the semis roll, the NDX will follow, then the COMP, which will pull down the SPX (not that it necessarily HAS to happen that way). With the semis making a 5 wave pattern down, a correction is very near if not started already. New highs in the semis, BTW, negates this opinion. If memory serves (without re-reading the entire thread) I think I commented that James made a challenge, for which there were no takers. Did that get proved wrong? It seems there are those who want to see James eat crow in the worst way. I only looked at the challenge offer and responses objectively. I really don't have anything else to offer.
sour grapes. Nolan-vinny-sam has been humiliated in every way by me. Even his own friend(s) here have asked him to move on. Nolan-vinny-sam would be the best candidate to take me up on my bet. No one has so far, and its a good thing for them. And you're right, time will tell whether this latest trade is a good one.
What has been the history of Fed activity during the presidential election years? Say for the last 10. I would think the Fed would try to stay out of it much like refs try to stay out of the last 2-3 minutes of a game. No one wants the outcome to be influenced by anything except the players. Now about that oceanfront property... which way does it face?
>Here is a chart of Fed Funds going into the last >Presidential election in 2000 for those who don't >think rates can go up until after the election. I don't hold a strong opinion on this interest rate issue, but I don't believe that is would be a fair comparison with this election and the last "lame duck" election. I'd be interested to see results from mid-term elections before declaring any correlation. I have no knowledge/data myself and you may well be right in either case. JB
James, do you have any "knowledge" of how the financial markets work at all? Quote from pspr: Here is a chart of Fed Funds going into the last Presidential election in 2000 for those who don't think rates can go up until after the election. The fact of the matter is that the bond market ANTICIPATES higher rates and prices them into the yield curve accordingly. The FED then follows what the market has already done. In otherwords, the FED simply responds to the level that the marketplace has reached, since the marketplace is the true harbinger of inflationary/deflationary expectations. The FED can indeed "nudge" the market ( and thus rates ) in the direction that it feels appropriate given the language that comes out of their FOMC meetings. Thus, they would rather "talk" the market to where they want to see it, in a gradual manner, rather than just shock the entire marketplace with a surprise rate change at any given time. Tomorrow, the key will be whether or not there is any change in the FOMC statement, such as the absence of the phrase"considerable period" or God forbid, the removal of the balanced bias statement. Stay tuned.