nevertheless, it was an assertion/prediction that was not qualified until later when the odds discussion was on. I would say that your outlook has changed and that's fine. I was just wanting to verify that indeed your outlook is now not necessarily the 5 month assertion/prediction that it was before. No problem with that
Not really. I'm sticking with the premise of this thread that the S&P will not see 1300 in January. Beyond that, I have no prediction. If this changes, I will start another thread, as I have done each time I have had a tradeable idea. My assertion that the S&P will not see 1300 thru June 2006 was a bold and extremely long odds (40 to 1) guess. My trading is always over the short term. I really have no idea what the S&P will do over many months. No one does.
this is true. That's what happens when my editing time gets reduced, and so I spit out poor grammar, and am under the gun to change it.
Yes. My outlook certainly does not include that the S&P won't see 1300 thru end of June 2006. I am not a fortune teller. If I wanted to play 40 to 1 shots, I'd bet it all on a single number at the roulette wheel.
I would say though that 2006 would end below 1300--with the usual ups and downs that accompany every market.
Thanks Bird. I like money but I like respect more. It means a lot that you consider me your friend. Last week per Barron's the bullish % was above 60. I do not know what it is this week. I still haven't received my Barron's. I usually get it on a Saturday but occasionally it is late and I get it on a Monday. Can someone tell me what the Bullish to Bearish % is? Anyway, I was thinking about not trading for the rest of the month but this looks like a too good of an opportunity to pass. I will short 1 contact @ 1295.5 with a stop at 1305. Target 1200.
In an article entitled "The Trader " the writer tells us that the bullish index surveyed by consensus inc. sits at 72%. If you trade technicals or at least consult them in your analysis- there is a rare formation characterized by volatility and some red in the face emotional trading.(Indexes) The new highs that we saw on friday didn't come from the S&P 500 or the S&P 600- margin debt in the markets (another Barron's article) sits at 220 billion in December. Next week we have a flat yield curve-likely. Weaker GDP is being ignored- with the expectation of a good employment report on friday . Bullish talk is everywhere. Lotsa newbs entering asking which stocks to buy on the chat lines(more in recent weeks than in previous months). Ameritrade announced a six dollar dividend- very generous. oh and there is a certain interest rate sensitive index that is repeating early 2001 behaviour. ...and that housing thing that everyone is talking about. Not to say that markets won't go higher but caution should be part of the trades.
doublea, How will you short at 1295 when the e-mini are at 1288.75. We might not even get to 1295. Maybe you will be lucky and Hit a spike tommorrow and get you short sale. Regards, Steve