Spreads "generally speaking" do have a much narrower trading range than the flat price analog - absolutely true. But for intramarket spreads the bid/ask size is much greater than flat price, so you can lever them.
Great point and I agree. IMO the longer timeframe modeling and position holding suits the narrative of a MACRO top call more suitably - which is really the difference between our two opinions. And differences are fine and should be respected.
So basically leveraging the shit out of a hedge to pocket peanuts ? Definitely does not fit my personality and style but if it works for you I'm all for it
Lower lows and lower highs making you look good on your testicular call. Having your targets within the long term channel range very smart. Props. Even if the market reverses and you stop out it is a gutsy call and I commend you for the raft of crap you've been taking over it.
One thing that I've kept an eye on are the secondary markets. Those usually are a good "tell" in so far as what the headline indicies will do. Russell led this move higher from the election lows (like a bat out of hell in November). It's been stalled out and waiting to roll over for at least 6 weeks now. The other big issue are HYG/JNK and the fact that they are breaking hard to the downside (usually lead Russell and Mid-caps lower). It looks a bit different now than it did with the test of 2300 (and pullback to 2262), but we are in a bubble market, so it's one day at a time with this beast.