I`d like to see more evidence of a blow off top & a bit of a build out before I commit to putting on my shorts... Daily showing an ERVB, which is quite bullish, entering into a new range. I just see no evidence at this point... They love to steal the short move on the overnight action from the Short Sellers with a big gap down.. so I certainly understand the trepidation of the bus leaving the station without you.
After a run-up like today, I can see a small pullback or more likely, some sideways action as the markets "digest" the large gain. Some longs will wanna take profits after such a sharp move and that selling is going to have to be absorbed. Now....if we begin to get consecutive wide range up-days, then I'd say that we're nearing a top.
Thousands of pundits have been calling for a top since mid-2009. Guess you might as well be the first. I've never understood the utility or reasoning to "CALL" market tops or bottoms beyond hubris. There's plenty of money to be made if you let the market tell you where it wants to go - and you have the good sense not to argue with the market.
%% Well, calling tops in a up-trending bull market, can work out every month LOL. They selling SPY last hour or 2 today. May see some sort of top, by May. Most up-trending months a have a top; not a prediction.As you implied ,the top is not really known for a while anyway.
Yep, that's the point. There seems to be an innate desire for immature traders to fight an obvious market trend.
Not all tops have the classic 'blow off' or 'key reversal' signatures. This is more common on commodities and small cap stocks as opposed to stock or futures indexes.
Let's see, we buy shares of corporations, President Trump says lower corporate taxes which means more profits, more earnings when there be taxes on foreign made goods, and some think it blow off top?
Whenever a market breaks into a new trading range, builds new volume there over TIME, and then improves the price valuation - that tells me that the market has accepted this new valuation. Since April of 2009, everyone who shorted long term R1 and R2 gagged on it; everyone who shorted a Fibbo extension gagged on it. Then they redrew fresh Fibbo extensions and gagged on those again. TIME is the key. These fresh price valuations have not up to this point been rejected - quite the opposite, the valuations are being IMPROVED. Will the market come off ? Of course. When ? Nobody knows. You can make a living trading if the five inches between your ears will allow you to accept what the market is telling you.
But what if your head is fat and it is seven inches from ear-to-ear? Doesn't that mean it will take longer for the information to travel in one ear and out the other?
No, the dumber the better. The thick headed dullard will pull up a weekly bar chart, draw a trend line, and buy dips. He will not think any further than that. The smarty pants will refuse to believe what he sees, will hyper analyze, rationalize, find market opinions from pundits who are like minded, and will be mad at the world when he is sodomized by the market. The one exception would be smartypants who automate shit and are in and out of the market like a mechanic. But they don't care about the broad market putting in a top - not one bit.