Sir, respectfully I highly doubt you want to go down the road of how well I understand probabilities.
The dow has been in a bear market since 9:05 am cst jan 10 2012 on the 60 min chart. All comes down to defining starting point and timeframe.
Yes sir, i do understand. but there's abit more to it than just simple probability analysis. Take a horse. His first few races suck, and then he runs a monster race. In his next race, I along with many other people, would weight his last race as more important than his first few bad ones.
For YM over the past year If you go by lower high lower low ect on the 60min ( which I don't prefer this way really) Over past year ....Roughly estimating .. moves lasting 5 days on avg measuring avg 500pts from top to bottom . If you measure by "gyrations" of minimum 500 pts (which is way I prefer to look at markets) Then avg 12 days top to bottom measuring avg 987 pts .
I agree, US has lost it's appetite for devaluing. If the dollar strengthens, gold could easily hit $1250.
I can't understand posters like yourself that say shit that isn't true just because they can. Just for illustration purposes, please list the lows for SPX for 2009, 2010, and 2011. Note the trend. Now note that 3 years is a significant portion of 12 years. 3 years is no blip that is temporary. Try the highs out, see if you can invent a bear market theory on those. Or just keep making shit up. What the hell, don't let facts get in the way.