Looks like lower highs to me with a descending triangle setting up. 33 ES is a pivotal point. I think there is a good chance we fail around here and make another lower high then print a lower low. Lots of stops resting around 93-96 ES I think we trade 1250- 1360 for a while
"Looks like lower highs to me with a descending triangle setting up." I have no earthly idea, but to reply that the same case might have been made in November. Again, smart money waits for the market to physically print the trend failure. Just wait for the market to show you where it wants to go - the obsession with calling an absolute top or bottom is just such a shit risk/reward skew.
took 10 days on small candles to drop 50 points in nov notice the candles now and how fast the market sold off the same 50 points We are at a critical point, if they print the lower high right here then we are going to take out those stop resting in the low 90's 25 points of upside 80 points of downside
Just a few days ago everyone was saying the top was in the top was in, some even were calling for the SPX to close below 1300 and find support at the 1275 level, well 2 days later and everyone has went to the bulls side, according to this article written after todays rally the stock market is now setting up for a "BIG RALLY" !!!!!! hmmmmm, isnt this market psychology great, one huge down day and everyone says the spx has topped, bulls are sad and bears are cheering, 2 days later market rallies and everyone says the market is back and setting up for an even bigger rally, as always this is just comical. Pro Traders: Stock Market Setting Up For Big Rally? CNBC.com | March 03, 2011 | 06:13 PM EST New developments Thursday triggered chatter that the stock market may be on on the brink of a major momentum shift, in favor of the bulls. The positive sentiment stemmed from a decline in oil prices and stronger than expected economic data; both catalysts sent the S&P [ .SPX 1330.97 +22.53 (+1.72%) ] higher.In the Middle East the Arab League said a peace plan for Libya was under consideration. The plan put forth by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, if successful, could end a major headwind for equities. Meanwhile, here at home, initial jobless claims fell last week to 368,000 -- a 2-1/2 year low and the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index rose to 59.7 in February, slightly above forecasts and higher than the January result. âThe progressively better data has got hopes up that we are going to see better looking non-farm payrolls numbers" in the Labor Department data, says Scott Marcouiller, chief technical market strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in a Reuters interview. Considering oil and employment are two major market catalysts, are we looking at a shift in market sentiment? Instant Insights with the Fast Money traders Oppenheimerâs Carter Worth tells us he interprets the technicals as bullish. Looking at patterns in the chart of the S&P he says the current weakness is âa normal enough pause in an otherwise intact, comfortable uptrend.âJoe Terranova is bullish on fundamentals. He thinks Thursdayâs (strength) was about money managers wanting to get back in the market ahead of the jobs number on Friday. He thinks thereâs potential for stronger than expected employment data triggering a rally.Tim Seymour also leans on the bullish side. He thinks the market is trading well and heâs not even worried about the potential of a rate hike, which he thinks the market would take a sign of growth.Guy Adami also believes the market is trading very technically but he skews bearish. He thinks traders may be setting up for a possible disappointment if the jobs number isn't very positive. "If youâre long Iâd buy protection,â he says.Meanwhile, Steve Cortes thinks the winning trade is long oil [ CLCV1 101.89 -0.02 (-0.02%) ]. âIâm adding to my position if it dips below $100,â he says. Even if troubles in Libya die down, Cortes thinks they continue to escalate in other parts of the region, particularly Iran and Bahrain.
tthe smart money is already in for a 4 or 5 day period before you know it,they run it up ,trip the stops load, up the bus,,and ride it down,you should be looking for signals,patterns,reactions to pops and dips with volume,corresponding markets,news slant shifts.. ..put em all together and you can catch the turn with them
Key global equity indexes have been overextended and overbought for too long â similar to what occurred during 2007/2008 and the inevitable result was the 2008 waterfall crash. The same pattern has repeated â the market has been stretched and stretched and stretched a bit more and prevented from attaining the natural equilibrium it desires. Just like a bungee cord will always release itâs elastic potential energy, so too will the market as it moves to a position of natural equilibrium. Unfortunately though, the market bungee cord is now extremely overstretched and so when itâs released the reaction can be severe. [I've never seen any 'market bungee cord' references elsewhere on the net - please let me know if you see any] Posted at my blog Friday, 4 March 2011 â 07:03 GMT
I could definitely see the case for fresh newly established shorts from "smart" money entering the market in here. 1218 and then 1126 would be your targets. Once we tip over a bit more into 1250 range they will add to it and press.
I'll let you all know when to buy, don't buy until I tell you to, or you'll lose money just like you did shorting the entire rally.