given that every single drop since march 2009 was nothing more than a buying opportunity, there's no shame in not wanting to go short for longer than a day. while today's drop is the biggest in 3 (or 4?) months, my bet is that it's another BTFD situation. right now, i'm just in metals.
Super fucking annoyed i didnt fade that pop... Didn't have it in me... ill usually jump in but the last pop weeks back really shook me..
this time is different! lol Market slowly realizes money printing is a road to nowhere. Margins will be squeezed like crazy Stagflation baby, P/E compression to single digits
Uhm. You can't really have stagflation if you have margin squeeze especially if prices of real assets are declining. There really is (will be) no inflation unless Ben prints a lot more. All the printing being done now is really just compensating for whatever is lost in consumer BKs and what was lost b4 in corporate and bank failures. Despite being bearish I'm not really opposed to QE in the sense that I would've done the same thing. I'm just bearish on the world/economy, has nothing to do with money printing. By the way, this thing is really starting to come off now. -2.2% in a day, who would've guessed.
Very reminiscent of 2006-08...the bulls wax poetic about following the trend, ostracizing anybody who was bearish and then all it took was one or two days to shut them up. A few days later the market would grind higher and take out the highs and the back and forth verbal sparring ensued. Except this time around, the bullshit levitating this market is infinitely more heavy handed. Will be interesting to see where this s&p trades after the third bubble/bust collapse in a decade. I wouldn't rule out sub 500.
You can have stagflation for other reasons. For instance, where the private sector loses its pricing power, the government can step in and with brute force increase the cost of living while there is little to no growth. How about a small business that is faced with the headwinds of all these massive price spikes in energies and commodities? Nobody can reasonably forecast 2-3 years out any longer. Oil to 150 back to 38 back to 100, all in a 3 year span. This is the kind of stuff that permanently destroys an economy, no matter what academic arguments people make about the efficacy of QE and other central planning methods.
you are spot on. and it isnt just small businesses, either. the company i work for has 20+ thousand people and in 2008 we took a huge profit hit because of inflation costs to the business. in the spring of 2008 (when we had to make the forecasts for 2009) we forecast 2008 type inflation. well we didnt get it. as such we had a huge profit gain (cogs is a big portion of our p+l) and we all got big bonuses. so in 2009 spring we forecasted similar inflation and 2010 we were off somewhat. in 2011, we're off big time thus far. it's feast/famine.