No one saw this coming, as usual!!! Everyone saw new fresh highs and thought the party was going to continue and continue... Oops Now we all know buy the dip and that s$p is going to 3200+ by Christmas. Right???
Ok you are the exception! But every article I'm reading is calling for a huge year end rally on top of the huge double digit rally the markets have already had....
Wrong (or delusional) == 2/3rds of the respondents to this thread opined on a short-term drop. I think you're painting the responses of about 1/3 of the respondents to this thread onto the rest. That is: Wacky. Errrrr. I'll bet you that inside of 10 minutes, if a gun were put to your head, you could come up with 2-3 VERY simple decision rules that would make serious coin if applied to any similar drops over the last 10+ years. Just one, for example: "BUY if ES drops 100pts/5-days. TrailingSL= 1%" THAT SIMPLE a rule would make serious coin. 10 years. DECADE. Sheeeesh.
And everyone will say buy the dip and within a few weeks the Dow will be back above 27,000 and the s$p above 3000. All will be forgotten about the trade war, rinse and repeat. I'm telling you it's going to get so bad that trump will eliminate all tariffs or at least lighten up on the tariffs he already imposed on China which will catapult the markets up up and away.
Agreed! As I'm reading this, CNBC's Josh Brown was saying the same thing: "I can't believe that on the 8th and 9th time that Secretary Mnuchin sez, 'Trade deal comin'...'" we find it in ourselves that same credulity that we had the prior *seven* times..." Love that guy -- HE is a trust-worthy voice, always. And Mike Santoli. And I have a HUGE crush on Kelli Evans.... "Yum yum!" So, those three. OH AND DOMINIC CHU, who mostly quotes numbers, as opposed to flapping gums with unfounded opinion..... So, those four. The rest? "Meh." Ooops. Steve Liesman is on: love that guy, AND he's an avowed Grateful Dead bassist. {"Happy Birthday, Jerry!" } Steve Liesman just quoted Bob Pisani: "Are we one Tweet away from a rally?" Whoa! Really?!?!? It seems they're catching on to what reality-watchers have known from before Agent Orange's inauguration. Okay, so, it's post-13:00, so we're painting today's close into tomorrow's EuroOpen. This means, either get the selling done, or start the re-buy. I posted that if we kept at 2860, we'd hit the bottom, but if we breached 2850, Look Out. Well, we DID breach 2850, and we did it on a fair amount of volume . So, my finger would be off the BUY button until we get above a 4-hour SMA. It's about 10 points above market right now, so call it, 2865. That would miss those 10 points, but too bad: any decline after Euroclosoe+USlunch = trouble, especially on volume. If we can climb on volume, or breach that 4hour SMA, that would be a much better basis for a BUY.
I played the breakout, made some small gains, then got out when the situation changed because I saw the chances of a short term corrective move were increasing. In other words, I saw it coming contrary to your theory. As with any forecast there is an element of luck, but you make your own luck with decent risk assessment and proper analysis of market news and long term technicals. I am in cash/bonds currently and won't buy the dip yet but do believe we touch 3200 on the SPX by end of year. If the trade wars get worse, I will readjust my forecast at that time.
Heavy heavy selloff continuing after hours. Feels like December 2018 all over again. But no worries, here is an article that's very upbeat MARKETS The Dow just posted a mighty big drop in a single day. Here’s what usually happens next... https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/the...ngle-day-heres-what-usually-happens-next.html