https://apps.newyorkfed.org/500.html EFF data site is under maintenance right now but should be back up slowly... Federal Funds are completely out of whack flashing red, going on memory EFF was 2.41 July 11th which is 6 bps over the Ceiling of 2.35, after they cut IOER 3 times by 5 bps. 25th Percent was 6-7 bps over Ceiling as well, after 3 CUTS since 2018 by the Fed, that's telling you there are very scared lenders and very desperate borrowers. If the Fed don't cut rates at every single meeting until ZIRP, it's gonna get real ugly... It's never the losses that kill you, it's the lack of credit. So many idiots claiming Powell caving to trump, Powell HAS to cut rates asap or ells total obliteration happens and they have to clean the mess anyways... They would rather be seen has caving under pressure from the media narrative, then absolute incompetence by not listening to the bond market. Financial media will never say, what is causing the Fed to go from 75 bps increase in 2019 and Autopilot on Sheet, then 6 months later we are cutting rates and thinking of doing a Standard Repo Facility that allows Big American banks to borrow from Federal Reserve directly... Think about it, would have to be pretty fucking huge, but the cnbc puppet show doesn't, and most retail aren't interested in understanding Credit and Money Markets
Man...we are making all time highs! The only thing ugly right now are traders who are shorting this market account balances.
I shorted it today! F me in the ass with a lubricated goat! (It is a band name. Don't punish me, Magna)
How come you can see and understand this but every talking head at the top is ignoring it? Or maybe they don't focus on that because they believe it to be just nonsense??
Are you that naive ? They fully understand it if they went from planning 75 bps increase in 2019 to 6 months later immediate rate cuts and basically TARP for big American banks by creating a Standard Repo Facility... Quote a wiki piece by Jean-Claude Juncker, who during the 2011 Euro Crisis was the President of Eurogroup : In a debate in 2011, during the height of the eurozone crisis, Juncker responded to a conference-goer's suggestion to increase the openness of the strategy discussions in the eurogroup, by stating: "When it becomes serious you have to lie".[36] Scholars of financial markets have remarked that the quote is often taken out of context by critics; best practice amongst monetary policy committees in most states is to keep negotiations on decisions confidential to prevent markets from betting against troubled countries until they are finalised. This need is complicated by the Eurozone's arrangements, in which policy negotiations are held in high-profile international summits of eurozone finance ministers, where leaks of ongoing negotiations may potentially put "millions of people at risk".[36] Indeed, the quote continues: Monetary policy is a serious issue. We should discuss this in secret, in the Eurogroup. ... The same applies to economic and monetary policies in the Union. If we indicate possible decisions, we are fuelling speculations on the financial markets and we are throwing in misery mainly the people we are trying to safeguard from this. ... I'm ready to be insulted as being insufficiently democratic, but I want to be serious, ... I am for secret, dark debates. When it becomes serious, you have to lie! Jerome H Powell
You keep following me in every thread trying to needle me... I made built my account to 145k US and change, built it well, what did you built ? Running your twitter fingers, praying I lose money in 2019 cause I exposed lil china's economy as being a fraud and your salty about it ? Don't worry puss, still much time left on my Oct 19 puts to be made flush. Does it bother you I am mentally superior then you ? That i'll likely end up an analyst then hopefully something more ? Yea i got cocky with my 2019 trades, but Bloomberg reported more then 10 Billion went into HYG Puts in 2019, I am not the only one... PPT is fire activated and almost every CB major easing, but they can't stop the crisis, it's months away Yea I lost money in 2019 so far trading, but it's far from over puss, far from over for the year...
No need to get overly excited pal. Perhaps follow my journal...get a few trade ideas. Up 35% so far this year. Good luck on your puts! https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/adventures-in-automation.329052/
121 months of economic expansion. Longest ever on record and still going and fed wants to lower rates. Hmmm...... Investors are showing some signs of wariness because performance has been so strong already. Stocks surged in the first half of 2019, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up close to 15% and rallying 7.2% in June, its best monthly performance since 1938. The S&P 500 rose more than 17% in the first half, the best for the index since 1997, and it just notched its best June since 1955. The run has to end — at some point. This month marks the 121st month of the economic expansion since the financial crisis, the longest run on record going back to 1854. And the July earnings outlook is bad: 77% of companies issuing pre-announcements say their profits will be worse than Wall Street estimates, the second-worst quarter since 2006.
All you're doing is fishing for stats that fit your narrative and ignoring those supportive of higher markets. Like the huge earnings expansion in US markets in recent years that helped pad corporate treasuries with the cash that some use to buy back their shares with. And you pretend that corporate buybacks and takeovers are somehow not legit real world transactions. Profits are dropping off from huge years. You need some perspective when you use stats. You need to do real world research not treat the stock market like some casino where nothing is real it's just numbers and hype. Doubt you'll ever get it.