Yeah no kidding. Selling long dated deep OTM calls is at the bottom of the list of things I consider doing.
Haaaaaa ....you are really believing a 50 basis point cut? You're kidding right? Haaaaaaa, should be no rate cut but the fed will hand you a 25 basis point cut just because....just be very very happy with that fed handout on July 31st, because you should be getting nothing How could you possibly believe a 50 basis point is valid? The amount of euphoria around this rate cut is disgusting, absolutely no need for a rate cut. But I hope you get your 50 basis point cut and more rate cuts into 2020 and I hope they go to zero percent so when the next crisis comes the fed had no where to go but negative. They claim 2% inflation which is completely wrong which is allowing them to take a step back and cut rates, again for no true reason at but just because wallstreet wants rate cuts. Isnt this the greatest economy in history according to those economists and talking heads on wallstreet? So why a rate cut? Why a 50 basis point cut? No one comprehends that slowdowns, recessions ....when they do occur are actually good for the economy, recessions are actually healthy for the economy as they create stronger expansion and refresh the behavior of individuals spending habits where one becomes more wiser and financially responsible. Recessions help us reevaluate ourselves but Any time the threat of a slow down appears everyone runs into a panic,they should be scared of thinking how long this economy has gone without a recession. Nothing great lasts forever but wallstreet has this mindset that nothing is allowed to slowdown or retract, the new wallstreet is all about a constant fed handout. That's not the way things work but you'll only realize this after the next great collapse.
Look at these headlines Dow set to open 100 points higher as market continues rally following Powell’s rate-cut signal Traders are pricing in a 100% probability of a rate cut before the end of July, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Small caps aren't even performing in this breakout to new highs, something doesn't seem right here. By now the Russel should have caught up to the rest of the indexes towards new highs, but nope, nothing. Russel 2000 down again today as most indexes touch historical highs!!!
I watch the spreads between the small caps, the mid caps, and the majors. It's quite common for there to be lead/lag between them. Especially when you have large funds and 401K allocations rotating between them.
I see your point, so you think small caps are going to play catch up? Because I'm not thinking that. If they didn't catch up by now I don't see it happening. Complete laggards! Which mean market participation is completely lopsided!!!
You are certainly entitled to your opinion, but Powell's statement to the Senate Banking Committee today was very clear. No tea leaves there to be deciphered - he was very straightforward about monetary policy being too restrictive. He was very forward about his opinion that the "traditional" relationship between unemployment and inflation was much weaker than the Fed has historically assumed, and that current monetary policy was probably too tight for the maintenance of 'satisfactory' unemployment rates.
Ahhh so now we have yet another dovish fed chairman, and I thought he was one of the different ones that would have been more hawkish but nope send in the doves! Pathetic. Would be spectacular to see a collapse in the economy under trump and Powell!!! You better wish hope and do everything to wish the fed promises that 50 basis point cut or else the markets will be very very annoyed at powell. You will get your 25 basis point for sure, but I give a 50 basis point less than a 0.0009% chance!!!