The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930

Don't fight the FED (it's got Trump's "support")!

 

I'm totally positive they will cut 0.5%

I don't have stats but I watched those rate cuts and telegraphing of rate cuts since Greenspan unexpectedly cut on January 2001 when Nasdaq was 7 or 8% up on a day
and then those Bernanke cuts and Qe announcement etc.

It always take at least a day of the announcement and the next day before move was over and you could short for a shallow retracement in the range of 0.5%

then uptrend resumes and you can short only maybe for 0.1-0.2% dips

For now I fully believe we can expect 3500 by the end of the year
quite likely 5000 by elections

maybe Dow 50000

 

On which one? I have the ~60 points from earlier today. Now I'm working a MNQ long from 7936.75, 10 point target.

 

NO

 

There is a definately a chance because there is a theory that they need to go big on the first cut.

 

NO

 

I've been 100% long equities since June 24; majority of that long June 14. It was a play on a potential break out on the upside given the potential double top on the SPX failed. I don't have the research but it wouldn't surprise me if there is 80%+ chance of short term breakout in this kind of situation. The fact the shorts on here have been operating on 95% certainty is another reason to be long.

 

A 3300 SPX call will cost you 700$. Net profit 19,300$, so more than 27 times your premium.
Ha ha. Very highly unlikely.
I would rather sell this call than buy it.

 

Famous last word. You would rather collect $700 premium with the potential of losing $19,300?

 

You have to take into account the very low probability of this event. Can't just compare those 2 figures.
Moreover, it depends on how you sell this premium. Could be a covered call...