Not one person is talking such a drop. I say there is a good 80% chance it gets below 2000 if this trade war continues into the end of the year. Markets hate uncertainty and that's where we are at exactly this moment. No one has a clue how global growth is going to slow with this trade war unfolding. Sub 2000 on the s&p is coming if nothing is resolved in the next 12 months. I think once the markets start to lose quickly and global markets start to panic where they are down 20-25% from highs is where the fed will step in and start propping up markets. Something will be done as it's always done to prop up the market and the fed will be bowing soon to help out. Hey they may even remove the 25% tax on tariffs if this news continues to drop markets. No one understands and will probably disagree but China has the upper hand in this trade war. China has more control of the global world economy and with trade wars going on they will win....
Errrrr, no. On a number of points. With regard to market uncertainty right now, keep in mind that the market is already uncertain. And we're down *almost* 200 S&P pts. Let me repeat: the uncertainty is here, and we're down almost 200 pts. Trade war: been trotting back and forth for months; it's NOT new news. Rather, shipping reserves are up (translation: new routes are being priced, new contracts being signed to new ports-of-call in new countries. CLUE!) What is being lost? A country (China) that has been less-than-friendly to foreign goods, services, and ownership. There has been an "exportation" of jobs *from* China going on 10 years -- the logistics are already in place. Etc etc. The point is, the economics are poised and ready to go. The driver(s) are non-market, non-economic, and *mostly* not predictable. For that reason, the non-market uncertainties a being contractually hedged: the uncertainty is already bought*paid-for -- we're down almost 200 S&P points. If we were to aim at a 16 S&P pe (<2200pts), it will be economics that take us there, not the current uncertainties. Even a kiss to 2650 (150 pts away -- another bold leg down), it will be passing news fads that make it happen, not long term economics. Still B-ingTFD.
Futures Tanking after hours!!! This market is going to fall faster and harder each time tariffs are placed on imports. He's doing this so the markets fall and the fed comes in to cut rates and push more QE! December lows are going to come sooner than you think. Trump says US will impose 5% tariff on all Mexican imports from June 10 PUBLISHED 30 MIN AGOUPDATED MOMENTS
I'm wondering how the inflation numbers in Q2-4 of this calendar year are going to rattle everyone, because let's face it folks, prices are going to be going up for X-Mas. Less consumer spending, thus less company revenue, thus less etc etc etc. Snowballs coming early in the northern hemisphere!
Prices are already high. The fed and markets have been ignoring this completely, now with tariffs inflation is going to rise even more. Someone has to pay for the increase and it's no one else but the consumer. Recession will ensure and markets will drop by at least a 1/3. More tariffs and the quicker we drop into a world wide economic slowdown!!!