Seriously?!? "Good call"??? After watching the global trade picture get perforated with a self-inflicted wound, after some mighty Blue Chips turn in half-hearted performance, after missing industrial production expectation by 0.50% just this morning.... We're STILL down barely 2% from where the "down 10%" call was made. We're STILL looking at a majority of days since this "great call" with an S&P closing ABOVE the "top" call. So, this is like a little kids' soccer game, where "Everybody gets a medal!" ????
I did. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...soon-at-2925-2930.331727/page-21#post-4857338 But then, that was a sucker's bet, and was filled in an hour. It had all sorts of reasons "why" -- not least of which was because it was short-term. And did you watch the market close on Friday? Lots of selling for the last 15 minutes: profit-taking by people who did NOT want to hold over the chancy, iffy, weekend. What happened? "Short term." "Long term??" Right now, the economy (remember, 'the economy'?) has a lot of solidity. The geo-political scene is rife with non-market, but most definitely market-impacting bullshit -- stuff that is unpredictable by construction. (Have you seen 2019 VIX? ) That makes any such [non-short-term] prediction a Fool's Errand. The economy sez ; the overall environment sez : so to 'predict' right now is NOT smart. (On the other hand, I'll put a pint down on just about anything. "Short term.")
With news in (til 10am, at least), and we're flat to yesterday's open: ±20 pts all day, 40pts actual range, centered on where we are now. A 1-minute ATR of 1pt. A great day to tick-scalp. The last 15 minutes will again give direction to the Sunday open. [edit...] Screw it. ±15pts around the open, still ~1pt ATR. 10:15am: WOW. Still have the opening ATR of ~2.0. "Jumpy!" Will be interesting to see where in the trading day 1.0 comes.
Meh. Shoulda stayed with the ±20pts forecast. We flopped around til 10am, and with Consumer Confidence (a lackluster market mover on most occasions) popping to "102.__" we zipped up +30 to 2885. We soon camped out at +20 between Euro-close and 3pm ("Chiiiiii-nahhhh"), when we dropped to camp out at flat-for-the-day. I'll score myself "Half-a-hit" on this one, as while it was still a net-No-Action day, we didn't drop below the open -- something I anticipated. I wonder if this smells of a drop for Sunday open... ("Don't worry, Hun. You just have the bags packed, and 30 seconds after I'm home, we'll be headin' to Montauk....")