It's bothered me that he was not a stronger voice during the Greenspan era. But than Greenspan did not seem to invite contrary opinions. And I agree he seemed to be asleep at the switch when he first took over. But then we are not privy to what was going through his mind at that point. Initially he seemed quite oblivious to the details of what was going on in the CDO markets, and appears to have been caught off guard by the CDS mess. But my impression is that he is now right on top of things. I find him to be a breath of fresh air compared to Greenspan's mumbo jumbo. Of the two, I think Bernanke is by far the better economist.
a men Hayman. As usual TT, you got the pic of the litter. The three moves are so elegant.... and they are in the past. It certainly is the "climax" run WJO'N mentions. I was calibrated in "greenspans" for years and years..... and he figured out he got it worng and said so. simpson is the man to listen to. Ask Bowles, he will defer to Alan S. every day of the week. Good work TT. Did you notice Dave Walker quit to work for Pete?
Piezone, I don't agree with you on how you think it will turn out, but I must say, I hope you ARE right. I have much worse feelings on this subject, as I think the bubble has been re-inflated to new levels, and we are setting ourselves up for catastrophe, as we continue to pass the baton (or kick the can down the road). I guess time will ultimately tell - I think I'm right, but truthfully, am pulling for you. Nothing would please me more than to be able to say, "I was wrong".
I can't stand you clowns who point the obvious saying all this printing of money, look at how big the balance sheet is etc. I think Ben said it best himself when some dumbass member of congress foolishly slammed him about the threat of inflation, qe etc... And Ben said the risk of doing nothing is far greater... Had he not acted I'm sure the 08/09 recession would have ended up into a depression
Roubini thinks current Fed policy is eventually going to end in "catastrophe". He isn't giving enough credit to our ability to respond to crises and make the changes necessary. In the final analysis the Fed can't do it, but Congress and the administration can. I think, over time, they will, because they have no other choice. It is going to take increased productivity as employment picks up. It's doable! There is more than enough money, but it's in unproductive pockets. The first step is to stop acting as though we're insane. We must accept the reality that this is not 1950, we are not going to be attacked with a bevy of nuclear war heads coming over the North Pole --nor were we ever!-- and it's a very bad idea to throw everyone we possibly can into prisons and keep them there for years as corporate profit centers. Medical and war costs must come down dramatically and the money shifted into education and infrastructure. And we must make certain everyone has access to routine medical care. Competition and free markets must be defended against special interests. When we have done these things, we will gradually experience a dramatic increase in real productivity and citizen well being. Entitlements, welfare, abortion clinics, gay marriage, personhood, and the morning after pill have nothing whatsoever to do with deficits. We need to get off those band wagons and get on the fast track to prosperity.
This thread is such a classic case of failing to see what price is doing. One of the top reasons why people fail at this business. Some people are incapable of buying because they feel disgusted that price is doing the opposite of what they think it should be doing. Hence, the common wise phrase "Trade what you see".
I don't have anything to add other than the prognostication that the rubber band will contract next week. The number that comes up is 50. I foresee S&P 500 at 1468 next Friday. This is just for kicks. Don't take me seriously.
the rubber band is stretched...... or still extremely compressed. since the market has been in an up trend since it was created, betting on bull markets going sour is fairly pointless innit.