The Rise and Fall of Mechanical Trading Systems

Discussion in 'Journals' started by DT-waw, Dec 16, 2010.

  1. DT-waw

    DT-waw


    yes, i'd also bet this is the case.
    but one thing puzzles me- why these systems made money since they were published on TS? is it just luck? if it is, these systems should start losing soon.
     
    #71     Dec 17, 2010
  2. DT-waw

    DT-waw

    #72     Dec 17, 2010
  3. DT-waw

    DT-waw

    #73     Dec 19, 2010
  4. DT-waw

    DT-waw

    #74     Dec 20, 2010
  5. DT-waw

    DT-waw

    Gold system is long from 1376.1
    Current price 1389
    The system is in $1,400 drawdown on closed trades.
    Will it recover and hit new equity highs?
     
    #75     Dec 21, 2010
  6. DT-waw

    DT-waw

    #76     Dec 21, 2010
  7. DT-waw

    DT-waw

    Forexsniper closed a short trade with a $558 net gain and is short again from 0.9545
     
    #77     Dec 23, 2010
  8. Of course if you have a lot of systems in a network, some will generate large profits and even some will have huge profit factor and very high win rate. It is called the Normal Distribution. The performance of most of them is due to chance. Give them enough time and they will post net losses.
     
    #78     Dec 23, 2010
  9. DT-waw

    DT-waw

    Probably its true- in the long run, all of these systems could end up losing.
    But some of the systems available seem to be exceptions. Take a look at the ranking according to number of days since TS began tracking the strategy.

    I wonder whether the outlier systems will continue delivering positive performance and more importantly- what is the difference in their trading rules which allow them being ahead of the others.
     
    #79     Dec 23, 2010
  10. DT-waw

    DT-waw

    Or is it just luck?
    Funny, when I've started a similar thread back in 2001 (loooong time ago!) about manual traders- why some make money - is it skill or luck? most people responding were outraged- saying of course when a trader makes money its a skill.....
     
    #80     Dec 23, 2010