The Rise And Fall Of America

Discussion in 'Economics' started by triggertrader, Jan 17, 2018.

  1. You might like this chart, @Sig, from Angus Maddison, may he RIP (it's one of my favorites and I might have posted it here before):
    maddison wereld vanaf 1.png

    You could possibly argue that it's all just a reversion to the long term steady state :).
    #131     Jan 22, 2018
    speedo and tommcginnis like this.
  2. Sig


    That is an illuminating chart, thanks. This clearly shows that in terms of national GDP China is ascending and the U.S. is declining. I think it's an apples to oranges comparison not to normalize that for GDP per capita though, since you're obviously going to spend a lot more of your GDP of X supporting a population of 1.3 billion vice 310 million, especially when absolute GDP is roughly the same. And as I alluded to earlier, the danger of graphs is that the human brain loves to extrapolate the last trend out as if it will continue at that slope for the next X years, which in China's case one could argue isn't really supportable.

    BTW I actually think the coolest part of the graph is the far left side, that's some surprising information I guess based on my eurocentric education bias.
    #132     Jan 22, 2018
  3. Exactly, I think it's a fascinating look at the world's economic history, which China dominated for a while. I find it all quite interesting.
    #133     Jan 22, 2018
  4. Humpy


    According to Putin - the country that gets the upper hand in AI will rule, but for how long ?
    It might be a surprise to some Americans that the US had staunch allies. But with the gratuitous insults and the " America First" program, the US's allies are fewer than before and less keen to be dragged into US lead wars.
    #134     Jan 22, 2018
  5. d08


    No-one cares about how you feel, little snowflake.
    #135     Jan 22, 2018
    lawrence-lugar likes this.
  6. imo, overall GDP and overall GDP/Capita have been a bit outdated measures.

    More meaningful could be using measures for the well-being of the lowest (say) 10% people.

    In other words, many people might think it'd be practically better and happier in a low GDP/Cap country where can provide better living to the lowest 10% GDP/Cap people for well-being in terms of low-cost-medical/ drinking-water/ economic-food/ low-cost-rental/ etc than otherwise.

    They probably don't want or think to move to much higher GDP/Cap countries if they cannot enjoy the same level/kind of well-being.

    Say, if the US can help Mexico build a few cities in a Mexico special zone where offers low-cost-medical/ drinking-water/ economic-food/ low-cost-rental/ etc, why would the Mexicans want to pass the US border when the US cannot offer the same well-being conditions?

    Perhaps the special zone budget even saves a lot of US federal money ($1.6 Billion wall construction plus extra annual petrol/ maintenance) as well! lol
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2018
    #136     Jan 22, 2018
  7. tommcginnis


    Think of GDP as option delta, and GDP per capita as option gamma.
    *Now* do you see what China poses currently, next decade, next century?

    "Yipes!!" :wtf:
    #137     Jan 22, 2018
  8. There are all sorts of interesting measurements that people have attempted to use, instead of GDP... It's a work in progress.
    #138     Jan 22, 2018
    OddTrader likes this.
  9. volpri


    #139     Jan 22, 2018
    lawrence-lugar likes this.
  10. Sig


    That's exactly my point. Delta is a first derivative, the slope of the line. Gamma is the second derivative, or acceleration of that slope. Both of those assume that the slope will remain accelerating in the current direction at the current rate well into the future and well into a bigger and bigger economy. That's just not realistic in China. It was immeasurably easier to go from a medieval level of development to early industrial revolution level in the late 20th century, especially when you didn't care about pollution, have few medical and pension obligations, don't spend 57% of your discretionary budget on your military...than it will be to continue to increase the current economy at the current rate.

    To take just one piece of this concept, this is a typical day, not night, day, in Beijing, and none of that is from the weather. And that's only the air pollution you can see, it doesn't take into account the water and ground pollution. That's simply not sustainable as is, let alone growing at the same "gamma" as China's economy!

    Last edited: Jan 22, 2018
    #140     Jan 22, 2018