Its not fair to require wildebeest to see ahead when for zillions of years they've neither even seen the lions on the far bank nor the crocs just 2 inches below the surface. The retreat will occur when Mother Superior jumps the gun - as in Happiness is a warm gun.
1) g20 consensus - not to devalue currency, us included -> dollar will not inflate as much as hoped -> commodity drops 2) opx next weekend 3) china stock market had a major down day on 1), speculation on further interest hike, and tax on capital gain/transaction all 3 caused today's drop, watch china market on sunday night, watch the dollar/uup especially monday morning, to see if this retreat is going anywhere...
shanghai market was down another 5% last night, uup closed today near $23. Add in another wrench - ireland. interesting to see how the shanghai market opens today in 1 hr, if it's another major drop, tomorrow will be bad.