ignore the people accusing you of selling something. The intent of your post (especially with your broken english - better than my French!) is too subtle for a large number of people on this site. I thought it was a very interesting post, and yes, you can almost imagine the mental workings of the inventors of the scam (who had probably lost all their own money in the real stock market!) as they try to add all the tricks, traps and pitfalls of the real market into their 'game'.... *really* funny, except some 'trusting' people probably lose money with them...
I'm very accustomed in fact so I don't really bother, in fact I like to provoc the snorkies http://www.project-entropia.com/default.asp I have found another micro-model of Market, a much more sophisticated since it is rather a virtual world economy as a MORPG game (Massive Multiplayer Game) with millions of players who would connect to play and exchange ... PEG Dollars whose value is 1/10th of real dollars ! What is funny is that there should have been attempts of creating lotteries in this world since I saw this on the admin forum - just posted yesterday: "January 29, 2003 12:11:52 GMT MindArk will not condone nor support any form of gambling or lottery enterprises in the virtual universe called Project Entropia. Action will be taken in each instance someone tries to use the Project Entropia or the MindArk name in any attempt to execute such enterprises. " You could think that it is for protection of the players but it's rather for protection of their officiel lottery and stock market so the monopole is undisputable In a former FAQ they explained how they will make money since their game is free. Well in this world climate is rude and deteriorate things so people will have to pay with real money to repair ! Now imagine : since they control the climate, they could create risks at will just to make money it is a more subtil equivalent of the restart game . So in this scheme controlling and creating the risk is the power of making money. I let you think about equivalents in real world... I have downloaded their game but have problem with connection if someone has done it and tell me how to do.
I have seen economics work in many MMORPGs (massive multiplayer online role playing game). The first time was in the Meridian59 Beta test. People would auction items off (in game) for money. Then some folks discovered a cheat to get loads of cash from the game (involved pretending to sell emeralds to a banker). Prices started to rise, as more and more people had cash. Then, a critical mass of people learned about the emerald bug, and currency was completely worthless. You could not buy something from another player for any amount of currency. Right now, you can wander over to eBay and see the currency dealers, willing to sell you in-game currency for real world money.
Are you trying to say that the stock market is essentially a similarly fabricated financial game in which only a few people can actually take profits? Also, please explain the origins of the work "snorkies". Is it from the cartoon "the snorks", or from something else? Merci
Snorkies, yes it should come from the snorks. it's my gentle term for designing people living and thinking as if they were on the moon not with earth gravity . I'm kinder than Rotschild I could use his expresion of "mentally incapable" "The few who can understand the system will either be so interested in its profits, or so dependent upon its favors, that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of the people mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantages that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that it is inimical to their interests. (Letter from Rothschild Bros. of London to a group of New York bankers, June 25, 1863) As for what I'm trying to say is that people who would consider that those games have nothing to do with reality they don't see that THIS financial system (I say THIS because we could have another one but this one has existed since at least the romans thousand years ago so people shouldn't even conceive another one is possible) is fondamentally, I mean, by their DESIGN, due to end with a restart, that is to say NEARLY EVERYBODY AT THE END will lose what he has gained although he could have the impression of winning millions and millions before the restart. I mean that what people does not understand is that these games are conceived to let enough people win perharps 10% - so as to attract the others - enough time so that they have confidence that it will last forever and then suddenly the "unexpected" event occurs and they lost everything. In fact you can even take the simplest casino game where they let you win 37/38 of the times and racket you 1/38 of the other time wich is a very small time but enough to make them winner at long term. So long term is not safe in fact . On Casino this rare event will happen every 38th day on average, on the MMG game, it will happen every 4/8 or so month and with our financial system it will happen perharps every 50 or 100 years. It is a very long time but it is in the life of a person. The millions or dozens of millions accumulated by a single person would be worth perharps only a thousand true dollars at this hypothetical end if it finished in hyperinflation because too many winners only a few real dollars. On micro-cycles well just look at traders or big funds bursting after a rather long time of success. If someone said that it hasn't happened and there's no reason so that it would happen then he refers to statistics and statistically something is significant only with a sample of about 30 items in the sample so we have to consider this in a perspective of 30 * 100 years so 3000 years and in 3000 years that what happened "regularly" (it is of course relative to an item of 100 years and for those who don't know history there were already derivatives products thousands years ago during the romans civilisation ! ).
"On Casino this rare event will happen every 38th day on average, on the MMG game, it will happen every 4/8 or so month and with our financial system it will happen perhaps every 50 or 100 years." I can consistently profit at a roulette wheel, by making sure that my bets on the alternating losses are smaller than my bets on the alternating winners. This is because the roulette is based on random behavior. The "restart" will only occur when the casino realizes I am beating them, and bans me from playing. The PDT rule may in fact be one such restart, intended to ban a certain portion of the players from the game. The MMG claims that "all players do nothing but win" for a period of time. Is this not exactly what happened in the 1990's stock market "bubble"? Then, of course, there was an inevitable "restart".
I used to astonish people saying that true randomness gives certitude, not immediate certitude but global certitude (I will explain that another day) because there are law in randomness, so I am not surprised at what you are saying. Nevertheless, first this law is true if you're rich enough, second if you don't benefit from persistency of chance discovered very recently by the mathematician Levy, that is to say statistically some people will benefits from apparent "abnormal" chance that permits them to beat the casino. So to avoid that, casino will change the rules or even banish some people from playing like you. I heard also of casinos banishing people if they saw their lips moving because it would be a sign that they calculate probabilities . In market yes probabbly PDT is one of theses rules so I totally agree with you. It doesn't affect people that are well above but the organisers must have made their calculations to optimise the level. They said it is to protect people it is false they give the power of margin to better strangle them . The margin rules is a protection rule. But on derivatives during crashes instead they tighten even more the rules accelerating and in fact perharps provoking the crashes because hedging laws forced the funds to sell more and more derivatives. That's how market washes the players For this reason, market cannot be truly random because it would be too easy to win ! This is totally against the common paradigm because efficiency of the market (the majority of speculatrs must lose) has been practically synonym with randomness ! Now they have changed the definition of efficiency because it is too flagrant that it was false but it is to show that it is not evidency.
I just found this quoted on Financial sense magazine: http://www.financialsense.com/resources/fed/fedwatch.htm " âThe one lesson history teaches in the financial markets is that there will come a day unlike any other day. At this point the participants would like to say, "all bets are off", but in fact, the bets have been placed and cannot be changed. The leverage that once multiplied income will now devastate principal.â Martin Mayer, 1999 "
The casino (SEC) had to create a "restart". Why? Because money cannot be consistently pulled out of the air to make everyone a winner. The PDT rule claims to be to protect the undercapitalized trader from himself. But what it does is protect the "House" from the smaller but damaging possibility of those who have come into the casino with practically nothing, and managing to propel their winnings, so that they remove disproportionate amounts of capital from the game. Having removed that threat, the PDT goes on to require that any unrestricted player must bring a minimum $25,000 ante to the table. Then, they give 4:1 margin to those players who bring that $25,000. This is equivalent to the casinos giving bonus chips and free drinks to gamblers. More chance of them losing their $25,000 back to the tables, which gives the house more time for the game to continue. But after a year, they found that even that was not enough. They found they needed to also include Options in the PDT restrictions. Why? Because options create great leverage without the use of margin. Once again, the damaging possibility that someone could come into the game with practically nothing, and start removing disproportionate amounts of capital. The absence of margin in buying Options means that the options trader is not at risk of being squeezed out of their bets by margin calls. They had to restrict options trading to protect the house's capital and keep the game going. Casinos know what they're doing when they make their rules!