Stage analysis is not a replacement for Elliot wave,nor do the Stage "analysts" claim it has any predictive power....Its a framework to operate within...
I haven't been following SPY so just ran it through some EW software I subscribe to. The 3rd wave can end at 100% but not uncommon for it to extend to 161.8% or beyond. Looking at the length of wave 1, I'd be surprised it wave 3 ended here, although the only rule is wave 3 can't be the shortest of the impulse waves (1,3,5)...it doesn't have to be the longest. So if I extrapolate from that I would say wave 3 needs to extend more so it can reduce the length of wave 5 or be longer than wave 1. One of those things has to happen. If it did pull back to 4 now, then I would expect a shorter wave 5. I already posted a C&H when people were complaining how this rally is seems to be never ending. Funny that it was a crude example but comes to the same result.
Thank you. To be fair, it's kind of vague, though. Directional trading (not investing) requires precision. What seems crystal clear in hindsight is usually not so in the heat of the moment. I posted my 'napkin math' for S&P in 2024 somewhere else. I thought I posted it here, too, but couldn't find it now. Anyway, here's what I posted by end of January in a private channel. The year is still young. With a 'big picture' bullish view I find it easy to play the long side, but it can be a bumpy road ahead, so I can't trade on this alone of course. Now that we hit my conservative target already, it's looking more like 5500 and even 5700.
Lets see an example of your charts...I will fix for you. Let me guess support and resistance, channels? Order blocks? ? This was an example of a higher degree on the daily chart. If you want to get more specific and start validating then go down a degrees or two and start charting the hourly chart. You can chart the sub-divisions between the 2 - 3 waves, ie (2) 1,2,3,4,5 (3), and then chart the sub-divisions between the 1-2 waves there etc.
I don't use EW and it doesn't interest me at this point in time. Was just curious to see an analysis from a proponent of the method. Thank you.
Wx,start a thread on EW and put some trades on the books... All I have seen from you is alot of boasting and watching CLSK go 35 percent against you..
How? I haven't even looked at SPY in ages and in a few minutes I have an idea where price is going, where I would enter, where I would take profits, and where I would load up. This is with the bare minimum of EW.