The "recession" that never happened.

Discussion in 'Economics' started by scriabinop23, Aug 5, 2008.

  1. No 2Qs negative GDP.

    Cisco can't have bust #s.

    No excessive inflation, according to CPI. (And we may well have peaked w/ inflation for this cycle, despite faulty CPI modeling methods).

    All despite banks getting taken to the cleaners by too aggressively lending to the cleaners (janitors/subprime).


    Is all the negativity in our collective imagination formed by assumption that history always repeats itself (which it never does exactly)?

    Now everyone is excited after a Dow +300 day. The enthusiasm is back, if only because the price action dictates it (the most fleeing justification and thus most invalid, I think).

    Let me propose some reality: Global macro trends are all hinging on some fundamental global economic anchors possibly changing. That is the only way bears get the global capitulation/recession they want. In other words, China lets the yuan float, stopping their monetary flood and slowing their export engine. Until that happens, this is going to continue the only trend I can confirm: opacity and more of the same.

    With fed policy like this, banks are recapitalizing. The jury is out on the energy 'bubble', if in fact that latest price spike was a bubble or an actual symptom of what happens in demand inelastic markets.

    Housing broadly still has a lot further down to come, but there *are* pockets of subprime in the most overheated markets that I believe are hitting bottom. (I just bought a condo in San Marcos (San Diego suburb) for $126k that sold for $320k in the peak of the bubble in 06, example) This is where opportunity is.

    I'm not sure, but there doesn't appear to be a fundamental catalyst to get us out of the mire we are in. The markets can just as easily bounce between 13 and 18 PE on ether alone - just changes in interest rates and inflation/deflation outlooks can drive this movement.

    With that said, between here (and even 1000) and 1600, fundamentals nor catalysts matter little.

    The SEC and Paulson/Fed have put a put under the market - that is the only bullish thing (besides multiple expansion) that I can come up with.

    There's my ounce of vagueness for you guys.
  2. The only bad thing about days like today is stock_trad3r will be back soon.
  3. Good afternoon,
    congratulations! That's a screaming deal right there. I lived in San Marcos for a year, at the very height of the boom, and hated how unaffordable things were. Now it's the place to be and I'm 2300 miles away, LOL.
  4. wasn't the price GDP deflator just reported at 1.1%?

    the lowest in 30 takes some gall to try to tell people that inflation is running so low

    331 points tells me some huge hedge funds were forced to cover at 3:30 eastern

    I guess M3 and TAF money is flooding the world and that's tough to fight on the short side.
  5. hardly any economists subscribe to the 2 quarters negative growth thing cause it doesn't tell you you've had a recession until its nearly over. they look at jobs, retail sales etc.

    That said, final numbers for Q4 GDP 2007 are now negative, and it is expected Q1 and Q2 2008 will be revised negative as well.

    In real terms, these quarters already are negative.

    CPI grossly under estimates inflation just as the official unemployment numbers grossly over estimate employment.

    banks have just begun to go bust.

    We are, and have been, in a recession for months. probably have a good year ahead of us to dig out as well. its amazing how during every bear rally, the perma bulls call a bottom in droves, without actually taking a look at what is going on.
  6. enkidu


    o it's a recession alright

    at the very least you can say that the financial industry got fucked

    people who graduate from my university can't find jobs and my peers and i can't find good internships

    last year? COMPLETELY difference story
  7. bdon


    Yet confirmed! Q4 was just revised negative last week. you see the Bush Admin lies to you to try and keep you from panicking into a worse scenario.

    Bill Gross was all over CNBC this afternoon (the only day i watch is fed day for that half hour) talking about how we are in recession. I can see it all over the place and so can anyone with a tad bit of common sense and two eyes. Not to mention, I would take Bill Gross's word over any of the Bush/Bernake brain trust.
  8. Thanks.... Right now I am trying to get set up to get some more.. Good rental properties.

  9. I hope the title of this thread is only mean to attract attention.
  10. S2007S


    You meant to say the "recession were already in"

    Enough already, how many times did they revise GDP downward...

    WERE IN A RECESSION.........................
    #10     Aug 5, 2008