Check out the Dow chart from 1937-1939. It looks somewhat like the current market. Kass over at the TSCM has a rational view about where the market is heading. This rally will continue up to 1000 on the S&P but will likely trade sideways for years until the balance sheet of the consumer is worked down. Of course there are economists from the Party of the Dumb like Mankiw who suggest negative interest rates to force people to spend. So expect the unexpected.
I agree with that with two differences: 1. Pullback from the inverse H&S only to 825. 2. We don't last above 1000 for long or even fully get there - too much pent up selling waiting from scared 201k investors looking to get out of equities that they were long and wrong. Much mutual fund selling/repositioning to go into cash/moneymarkets/treasury funds. Will work out well actually replacing lost FDI into Treas. But otherwise we're pretty close in agreement.
Whew I was sweating a little bit. I was wondering when the over-bullish sentiment came back to ET. Time to short.
If the backbone of this rally is 12.8 trillion in stimulus packages. When will it become apparent if it is toxic debt or productive debt?