+1 a good trader goes long, short or flat, increases or reduces positions, diversifies, etc. at the right time. There is nothing special about going long, except the market tends to rise in the longterm (inflation, etc.) You learn to trade price action and trade what you see. You don't stand on soap boxes and give unsupported opinions on what is wrong with something or with others.
Ignore them. You have said a lot of stuff that makes sense. There are always people who give opinions and do not know what is critical or not. Just use the ignore button and weed out people who are still reading "Trading for Newbies."
The ideas expressed by the starter of this thread are important only in that he seems to recognize the substance of this market, but to not be acting on it according to what works for more experienced traders. Namely that every little emotional stab to the downside should be read as follows: "Hmmm...I bet a bunch of novice money is going to pour in short on the following bounce because of that move." It is implicit in his comment that he recognizes this (the whole point of starting the thread is an attempt at explaining just exactly why it is that "everyone" is sitting there trying to get short at the right time). Hence, he should also be recognizing that this implies the ensuing bounce will be bouncing DESPITE the influx of ss orders by small traders (i.e. "pushing" through gradually increasing weak-handed short interest). When that happens, that short interest tends to scale bigger, averaging up, and then get "flipped" into covering, and the squeeze is on. The only point I'm making is that it doesn't matter "WHY?". It is just interesting to see how the more important piece of information, "THAT", is used or not used depending on where a trader is in his evolution.
I should have worded this differently. You didn't misunderstand my post, you have MISREAD it! I never said I was trying to "stick it to the man" or someone. That's what FB said in his reply to my post, and I don't really agree with his interpretation of the psychological reasons why people feel the need to short. It seems people here are fucking rabid or stupid or both. Make a simple, thoughtful post, and let the dogs out. The whole point of my post was to express what I think is the hidden motive of why a lot of traders, including me, were / are shorting the markets despite constantly being proven wrong by the markets themselves. You can read why I think so in my original post, and if you think it's "total bunk", then you must believe your own post is too. I was making exactly the point you were so fervently trying to get across. That shorting is just a tool, but whatever. I really don't give a fuck what any one you here think anymore. Looks like ya'll need to learn how to fucking read and comprehend a post correctly, 'till then I'll just keep my thoughts to myself, since it's obvious sharing insights here is met either by idiots or psychotics.
Gubinec, First of all, those guys are a-holes. totally. Ignore it and express what's on your mind. But, more to the point, I still hope you see the more important issue: if you feel convinced that "traders" are feeling the need to short, you could not possibly have a better edge on a market. I guess I just feel compelled by your post to express to a random person I'll never meet that you are aware of the most important piece of information you can have as a trader, and your not seeing it in an applied sense. Every time you see a moment where you know that short interest is coming in once again for another "This is finally it!" moment, if you don't see an immediate sharp decline follow, but instead see a few failed assaults at the bid and then a gradual grinding bounce....BUY THE SHIT OUT OF IT! Eventually this will stop working. But while you see it, and while its happening, know that, for whatever reason, fast money keeps fighting big money and folding.
Gubinec, I read one of you're earlier posts about interviewing with Mike at Lynx... I just interviewed with him a few days ago.. I am just trying to find out if it is a waste of time and money. I saw that you started in April somewhere and already left. Was it at Lynx and what were your experiences? thanks.
I think it's far less complicated than all this. People want to short because: 1) Lower prices are "down" on the chart so traders subconsciously expect "gravity" to take hold. Of course there is no such thing in the markets. 2) Price does actually seem to fall in a faster, more sudden fashion than it rises, so traders are afraid of missing the boat if they wait for confirmation. 3) In connection with #2, the violence and duration of market rallies vs. declines gives shorts far greater opportunities to be wrong. In 2009 we've had basically one month of violent declines followed by seven months of slow, relentless grind higher. Traders who don't have a consistent, non-random method will spend far more of their time saying "I don't want to buy here, price is too high" or trying to call the top on slow melt-up days than they will kicking themselves that they missed the one-day 10% drop. In the grand scheme of things, genuine opportunities to short are more rewarding but less common - so of course everyone wants to catch that huge drop, but it appears much less frequently than opportunities to go long.