the reason indicators don't work isn't because they're lagging

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by 1a2b3cppp, Jan 23, 2018.

  1. Correct.

    Maybe I should say indicators serve no purpose to traders who want to be profitable. You might as well just enter randomly.

    You might be right seriously, but the problem with reduced win rate systems, aside from the fact that trend trading blows, makes you have to take every trade because if you happen to miss a big winner, you're going to have a lot more losses until you get that one big winner again. Moreover, if your win rate sucks that much, your method of entry sucks, which means you might want to examine some things.

    Ok listen, if I was playing roulette and could only bet on one number at a time although it paid 100:1, yes I would play all day. Low number but big winners.

    Trend trading is the worst, especially considering massive players just average in until it finally goes in their favor. Which is why it has been said there are exactly 3 edges in trading, arbitrage, pairs trading, and big buying power. Oh, HFT possibly.
     
    #51     Jan 28, 2018
  2. Xela

    Xela


    I trade without indicators, myself (and have done so for years, as both an independent and an institutional trader), but even I still think that statement's very misguided and mistaken.

    I also have many colleagues who trade with indicators who think the same.

    And so, I know, do countless other financial institutions.

    So I'm sure you'll understand, in those circumstances, that to me that comes across simply as a prejudice.



    That's true, and so is the fact that the lower the win-rate, the less likely it is that that would be the trade you'd "happen to miss". More to the point, though, is the reality that if you're comparing one trading method with another, you naturally compare them on the basis of including every trade of each method.



    That's a circular argument.

    Not only isn't it correct, but it isn't even logically valid.

    Whether low win rates "suck" is the issue you're (purportedly) adducing it to determine.



    We agree about that (and it illustrates by analogy exactly the point underlying what I said above).



    There's a large number of members here (of whom I happen to be one) making our full-time livings rather consistently from trend trading (some for years and others for decades), so we'll have to continue disagreeing about that one. :rolleyes:
     
    #52     Jan 28, 2018
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  3. Saying some traders make money with indicators is like saying some people who go to casinos make money with systems.

    They might; it's not dependable.
     
    #53     Jan 29, 2018
  4. So that's like saying you lost money in craps because you didn't use your system right.

    No.

    This is always the excuse. It's not really feasible that there are indicators that work except the overwhelming majority of traders just don't know how to use them. THis is how trading books get written, by the way, just blame it on psychology. I just told you how to write a trading manual. PM me for paypal address.
     
    #54     Jan 29, 2018
  5. Yeah, most probably the funds care about little traders and are trying to make money from them...

    This is rigged in favor of them because of account size and access to information. Give me someone with a $800,000,000 account and I'll show you someone who may make money averaging down.
     
    #55     Jan 29, 2018
  6. Oh for shit's sake, yes, blame the indicator, the trader is probably an idiot, too, but the indicator wasn't going to work anyway.

    Posters here have tested this numerous times. Take any indicator. Take whatever signal you want. It's the same as flipping a coin. Sometimes the long signal shows you a huge trend. Sometimes it reverses. Whatever.
     
    #56     Jan 29, 2018
  7. I would be happy to do this.

    All stochastic does is show you how high price is compared to where it was a specific number of bars ago. Useless.

    Go long when it's overbought and sometimes you'll make money. Go long when it's oversold and sometimes you make money. What's amusing is the gurus will say "sometimes overbought means the trend is strong and you may think about going long." Fuck you guru. Because the alternative is "overbought means you should think about shorting." You just said it the other way. Fuck you and your stupid book. They just stick ambiguity everywhere so they're never wrong.
     
    #57     Jan 29, 2018
  8. nickynoes

    nickynoes

    The reason the majority fail at trading is simply because it is a difficult, crowded professionals where you from the start til finish compete against others that have far more experience and resources than you do.

    Saying indictators don't work because the majority of people can't earn money using them long term is like saying the reason most basketball players aren't NBA professionals is because the ball doesn't work. Some people just spend more time stuying and practing and/or are naturally gifted.
     
    #58     Jan 29, 2018
    speedo, Sprout and Xela like this.
  9. @Xela you are becoming one of my favorite posters. We might not agree although you can present your ideas in a way that is enjoyable.

    Not the regular indicators that we're talking about in this thread.

    Hugely disagree.

    I know what you're saying. I was not complete in my post.

    Strongly disagree it's a large number of people. Seriously probably less than 10.

    I believe trend trading is possible. I do not believe the methods to do are are freely discussed on forums. I do not believe they involve indicators. Actually, I should say price based indicators. Here, I will be more clear. I do not believe that trend traders make money by joining an ongoing trend. I believe they buy bottoms and hold on as opposed to exiting early. This forum has already demonstrated that it does not understand the concepts by which a trend is identified. I don't care about your method for determining a trend, I mean there was a thread where people disagreed that there is a moment where you can say "now there is a trend and one bar ago there was not." Seriously, that is required to have a trend to buy or sell.
     
    #59     Jan 29, 2018
    Xela likes this.
  10. nickynoes

    nickynoes

    No because it is quite easy to google succesful traders who have over the long term made money using indicators. Indicators are not primarily the cause of why they are succesful.

    Just go read Market Wizards.
     
    #60     Jan 29, 2018