the reason indicators don't work isn't because they're lagging

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by 1a2b3cppp, Jan 23, 2018.

  1. bone

    bone

    There is not an indicator or algorithmic function or statistical study or any known means of prediction with certainty when it comes to financial markets. Noted exceptions being illegal activities and outright stealing - and then I'd argue that there is uncertainty as to the perpetrator's future and his or her own personal risk and quality of life.

    Traders take calculated risk.

    And some methodologies for undertaking this endeavor are much better than others. But in the end, there are no certainties. If you require certainty - I can't think of a worse place to look for it as trading markets. Find a government job with a union, perhaps ?
     
    #21     Jan 24, 2018
  2. Inaccurate analogy. Everyone uses indicators to say like if you are going 55mph and it says you are traveling at that speed it means you are going to keep traveling at that speed.
     
    #22     Jan 24, 2018
    tomorton likes this.
  3. In my experience, volume is predictive. I have written code to back test this, and it is profitable. The general rules are:
    1. If volume and price are both rising, price is likely to continue rising.
    2. If volume and price are both falling, price is likely to turn around.
    2. If volume is rising and price is falling, price is likely to continue falling.
    3. If volume is falling and price is rising, price is likely to turn around.

    I have tested this only on daily bars and 30-minute bars.
     
    #23     Jan 27, 2018
    userque, Sprout and vanzandt like this.
  4. Cswim63

    Cswim63

    3-2 count, two men on base, what kind of pitch is coming?
     
    #24     Jan 27, 2018
  5. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Depends on the batter, but 80% of the time its gonna be a fastball.
     
    #25     Jan 27, 2018
  6. Cswim63

    Cswim63

    Thank you.
     
    #26     Jan 27, 2018
    vanzandt likes this.
  7. Cswim63

    Cswim63

    If he (or she, heh heh) is a hot
     
    #27     Jan 27, 2018
  8. Cswim63

    Cswim63

    hitter, you have what's known as a conundrum. Sorry, operator error there. . .
     
    #28     Jan 27, 2018
  9. Sprout

    Sprout

    The above in combination with the ten price cases forms a solid foundation in understanding the PV relationship.
     
    #29     Jan 27, 2018
    Simples and Xela like this.
  10. bone

    bone

    Pete Steidelmeyer’s Market Profile is an excellent market behavioral system that incorporates the TIME element.
     
    #30     Jan 27, 2018
    comagnum and Xela like this.