SA, So, you have been short DX, long ZG and short rates for the last 6 years. Make you a deal? Display confirms with these trades going back 6 years and I will raise you 10mm or more to manage @ 2/20. I know plenty of folks that can use a guy that makes incredible macro calls and rides the entire trend. Deal? Not blowing smoke here. I am in touch with a family office in Switzerland that has plenty of capital for you to grow into. PM me if you prefer. Regards, Not a macro guru. P.S. I would think you would be way to busy enjoying the proceeds of those trades instead of posting on ET. To each his own I suppose.
. January 24, 2008 SouthAmerica: The New York Times just published the enclosed article. I donât understand why the people from around the world still are sending so much money to be invested in the United States when the system it is run not much better than a âBanana Republic.â The politicians in Washington canât connect the dots even if it is necessary to save their own lives â most of them lack even a minimum amount of common sense. You really donât have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that it would be nice to extend the safety net when the country is in the process of getting into a major recession. I know it is very hard to connect the dots and figure out that when you are getting into a recession the unemployment figures it will go up as more people lose their jobs as the economy starts to implode. I also know that it is very hard to connect the dots that by giving an unemployment extension the government would be putting money in the pockets of people that might be able to pay their mortgage and keep the sub prime mess from getting in even worse shape. Actually an unemployment extension would help people pay their bills when they donât have another source of income; kind of help people to stay afloat. Today, the kind of politicians we have in Washington, I donât expect that many of them are capable of grasping what I am saying; maybe with a very few exceptions. I also understand why a few politicians who understand what I am saying about an extension of unemployment benefits â might be persuaded to change their minds on this subject. If the government gives an extension of unemployment benefits that would increase the number of people who are considered unemployed on the US government official statistics and the unemployment rate would go even higher because the government would not be able to classify all these people as discouraged workers. I also understand why they donât want to give a small increase in food stamps to the most needy group of people in US society â right now many of these people are able to secure enough food to be able to eat for about 3 weeks of the month â by keeping Americans hungry and without food for one week per month the US government is kind helping these fat Americans lose some of their extra pounds by placing them into a forced diet. ******** âTentative Deal on Economic Stimulus Planâ By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN Published: January 24, 2008 The New York Times WASHINGTON â House leaders and the White House on Thursday reached a tentative agreement on an economic stimulus package of roughly $150 billion that would pay stipends of $300 to $1,200 per family and provide tax incentives for businesses to encourage spending. A House aide close to the negotiations said that Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and the Republican leader, Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, reached an âagreement in principleâ after Ms. Pelosi agreed not to include two proposals that had broad support among Congressional Democrats: an extension of unemployment benefits and a temporary increase in food stamps. In exchange for those concessions, the Bush administration and House Republicans agreed that the stipend of at least $300 would be paid to all workers who earned at least $3,000 last year, even those who did not earn enough to pay taxes last year. âThe vast majority of low-income people are going to get a minimum of $300,â said a White House official familiar with the outlines of the accord. ⦠Republicans immediately cheered the deal as âtilted toward taxpayersâ and avoiding âextraneous spendingâ on unemployment benefits, food stamps, or infrastructure projects, which some Democrats had said should be included in a stimulus packageâ¦. .
Excellent Commentary As Usual... ............................................................................................ What really stands out to me is that how simple this approach really is in the sense that a sum of money is agreed upon that would be significant, then tax revenue is shifted over to this category...If this money is spent at WalMart, does this not go to China ? Perhaps of even more interest is just how sensitive the economy really is....and strongly suggests that if rates were attractive enough to save, the net result would be an assured recession. On the other hand, it is because of the lack of savings , that the US must borrow $3 billion every day from other countries, and thus is very vulnerable. I suspect that the US Economy will never be considered to be healed until a satisfactory number of average people save, and these people can live on the interest of a realistic savings amount. Now when you take in consideration that the SS people thought they were saving is really not there, just where does this leave the people who are in this most vulnerable demographic. And furthermore, even in light of all the prospective financial issues, the US is far ahead of lessor developed countries, some of which do not even have the capability of registering land titles...or delivering mail through their postal systems... Which goes to show just how vulnerable the world is. If $1000 per family can make or break the cash flow to the strongest country in the world...then perhaps other countries would be affected if it were $50. The world´s economics are definitely very sensitive, and very vulnerable. But one can definitely make a difference with relatively small amounts on a per family basis...
another excellent post SA ! keep up the good work on/of the banana republic this country has become .
. June 30, 2009 SouthAmerica: The latest issue of The Economist magazine mentioned in one of the articles that the current official US unemployment rate of 9.4 percent is brokendown as follows: Official unemployment rate Men = 10.5 percent Women = 8 percent The explanation for the different rates of unemployment rate by gender is because there are more women working as teachers and health care providers, and men work in construction and the auto industry - two areas of the economy that are in bad shape right now. I will not be surprised if the official unemployment rate for men goes over the 11 percent mark when the US government report the new numbers this coming Thursday. And before year end 2009 the unemployment rate for men can very easily reach the 12 percent mark. .
Last U6 report was 16.4%... which John Williams from Government Shadow Statistics says is even a fudge.
With a U3 for US cities up to 15% (Hickory NC), can you imagine what U6 is there? 20%? 25% 30%? Who knows? Can you imagine the misery? Who is speaking to this?
October 8, 2011 SouthAmerica: The real unemployment figures is a lot worse than the figures that the US government fabricates every month. Sinking US economy and massaged unemployment rate â October 7, 2011 <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/peFRCPUbXtk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> .
October 8, 2011 SouthAmerica: When I was watching the discussions yesterday on CNBC about the latest data released by the US government related to the unemployment figures for September 2011, their discussions reminded me of one article that I wrote in October 2003 as follows: Brazzil Magazine - October 2003 âHow to reduce Unemploymentâ Written by Ricardo C. Amaral http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/20-october-2003/1073.html To improve the unemployment rate in Brazil overnight, the Brazilian government should adopt the same system of counting the unemployed being used by the United States government. It is a simple method that uses several techniques including lies, deception and misinformation. Here is an easy strategy for the Brazilian government to adopt immediately, and reduce the Brazilian unemployment rate overnight from 13 percent to a more reasonable rate of 5 percent. On September 25, 2003 Bloomberg News published an article by Guillermo Parra-Bernal saying: âUnemployment rate in Brazil hits 13 percent.â The article also said: âAnalysts say the rising number puts pressure on President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to boost spending and create more jobs. Brazil's jobless rate rose in August, adding to evidence that South America's largest economy is failing to revive after four months of interest rate cuts. â¦President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who won election last year on promises to create jobs and spur economic growth, appealed to Brazilians to have patience. ''We need to keep calm,'' Lula said at a press conference in New York. ``The economy will grow.'' â¦The jobless figures mean ''that the president will be under pressure to deliver on his campaign platform faster than expected,'' said Vitali Meschoulam, Latin America director for political risk advisors Eurasia Group in New York. â¦August's unemployment rate matches June's rate, which was the highest since the government began keeping records of its new index in October 2001. Other evidence also points to a weakening economy: Industrial production fell for a fourth month in July and retail sales fell for a fifth month in August.â The Easy Fix. To improve the unemployment rate in Brazil overnight, the Brazilian government should adopt the same system of counting the unemployed as the system being used by the United States government today. It is a simple method of counting the unemployed, massaging the figures and various modern techniques, such as: âLying, Deception, and Misinformation.â Today, if the Brazilian government started using the same method of counting the unemployed as the method being used by the US Labor Department, the Brazilian rate of unemployment would go overnight from its current 13 percent rate to a more acceptable rate of 5 percent. And the country can even be losing and exporting millions of jobs to Asia as in the case of the US economy. The financial markets in Brazil should accept the new rate with open arms, as Wall Street accepts the unemployment rate of 6.1 percent as reported by the US Labor Department. I know there is an 8 percent difference between the two rates (from 13 percent to 5 percent), but that is easy to fix, the Brazilian government doesnât need to lie; they just need to add a footnote to the report; saying that 8 percent of the population is not counted as unemployed because they are discouraged and have abandoned their job searches. (This type of misinformation works in the US, and should work in Brazil as well.) If the people in the labor department in Brazil need an actual example of what I am saying, then they should check the US governmentâs unemployment report for July 2003. They just made a footnote to its unemployment report in July 2003 saying that the report did not include 556,000 unemployed people, because the government claims that these people left the labor force. They want people to believe that a large number of job seekers are discouraged and abandoned their searches. Data from the US Labor Department shows that the current unemployment rate in the US is 6.1 percent. Wall Street commemorates the data by sending the stock market up, up and away. But if you make some rational adjustments to the unemployment rate as reported by the US Labor Department, you get a different picture. It is estimated that at least 3 million people are hiding in the disability figures. They had an explosion in the number of people on disability in the last 2 and half years. Another 4 million are not counted because they left the labor force and are considered discouraged workers who abandoned their job searches. If we adjust the unemployment rate for these items, then the US unemployment rate jumps to over 12 percent. If we make further adjustments for the over 2 million people in the prison system in the US, and for the over 6 million people who are underemployed or decided to further their education because they could not find a job, then a more realistic picture appears of the unemployment rate in the United States, with the actual unemployment rate increasing to over 18 percent. There is something here for Brazilians to learn from the Americans, and the Brazilian Labor Department can use the same type of misinformation as the one being used in the US. The Brazilians can reduce the official unemployment rate in Brazil to 5 percent, or they can be even bolder and reduce to 3 percent; the financial markets will not know the difference. If they get away with that type of garbage in the US, the Brazilian government should be able to get away with it as well. That type of misinformation also works for the local numbers as well. For example: the city of São Paulo should not make public that they have an unemployment rate of over 20 percent. They should use a number in the range of 7 to 8 percent. That type of lie works for New York City; I would not be surprised if the real rate of unemployment in New York City is closer or higher than 15 percent. If you are an ethical person you might be thinking that I am a complete idiot for suggesting such a thing. But that is how things work in the United States today, and as a major economic power, the US sets an example for the other countries of the world. The US government fudges their statistics, and they make footnotes to let everybody know that the figures published are not worth much. But people still use the data anyway, as if the data had any value. We have one fraud after another in Wall Street where trillions of dollars in investorsâ money have been lost in the last few years, and trillions more will be lost in the future. Wall Street has become a foolsâ paradise, and they have the record to back that up. The US government has lost most of its credibility around the world since the Bush administration took office. It is not a secret that the current administration doesnât make much distinction from good information and garbage; if it is useful information to further their agenda theyâll use it. The United States Labor Department. It is depressing to think of how far the United States declined in the last three years, it has been a steep decline for such a short time... .
December 2, 2011 SouthAmerica: What an insult to our intelligence! The US government with these "fairy tale statistics" thinks that the American people are a bunch of idiots or are âbrain deadâ. We live in a make believe world here in the old USA, and here is how things are getting really better regarding the job market in the United States. Most of the jobs created in November 2011 were the minimum wage Walmart, and Burger King type of jobs â and they fudged the unemployment rate to show a better result than the reality by claiming that the job market is so bad that 300,000 people stopped their job searches last month â and these people don't exist anymore as far as the US government is concerned, and it's as if all these people have moved to Mars. But in the world of illusion of Wall Street that type of garbage information is taken seriously. ***** December 2, 2011 US unemployment rate drops to 8.6% http://www.freep.com/article/20111202/BUSINESS07/111202020/U-S-unemployment-rate-drops-8-6- ...In the United States, about 13.3 million people are counted as unemployed. Private employers added 140,000 jobs in November, while governments shed 20,000. Governments at all level have cut almost a half-million jobs this year. More than half the jobs added last month were by retailers, restaurants and bars. Professional and business services also rose. Those tend to be higher-paying jobs â engineers, accountants and high-tech workers. Still, more than 300,000 people stopped their job searches last month, so they were no longer officially counted as unemployed. That accounts for some of the drop in the unemployment rate. .