I still think the problem is this guy's "mastered everything in 2 years" claim. It's possible that an intelligent, gifted trader could learn a few setups/patterns in a particular market cycle and be quite profitable for awhile. However, this guy talks like he's some kind of Zen master who always has his finger on the market's narrative and pulse. I'm not buying it. If such gurus exist, they've been at this game for many years. He may or may not be telling the truth about his success. If it's true, it's likely been a combination of luck and being able to play the uptrend/sideways action we've seen since 2009. It won't continue for too much longer.
Most of the flights these are days are run on AUTO PILOT. Does this mean end of pilot theoretical and simulation/practical trading? No it does not. A student pilot puts lot of effort in clearing exams, completing flying hours etc. I have found one medical software where i enter the symptoms of my body and it gives me possible disease and associated medicines. Does it means end of 10-12 years of doctor training? I want to be a DISCRETIONARY TRADER. For that i have to learn to read the market correctly. It is a tough thing to do. It is a sacrifice for many years. But it is permanent. It is original. Once Neurons and synapses inside my brain gets strengthen through repeated training, discretionary trading is like a KISS.
This is along the lines of what I was alluding to yesterday. If a pilot has been flying a 747 for 20 years and something unexpected happens he will typically have a reflex reaction and begin to take corrective measures without very much thought. This reaction is based on the knowledge and experience he has gained throughout 20 years of flight time. He responds to a certain situation intuitively. The same is true for trading. If you've been in the cockpit for long enough you learn to recognize the message the market is sending you based on how it's behaving. Something will happen and trigger a reflex reaction. You'll buy, sell, or perhaps even do nothing. Your actions require little thought because your decisions are based on 20-years of flight time. At this point in your career you begin to play less with the crayons and pay attention to the message of the market and develop the ability to intuitively read the market. You develop the art of just knowing but you never abandone your scientific tools. Unfortunately, pilot error is real and so is trader error. Fortunately, for the trader the damages are less severe but once you develop the ability to rely less on the charts and more on your experience and intuition you are crossing the line from student to master. Intuition: Understanding without apparent effort. Anyone who is striving to reach this point in there career should not place another trade without reading "Trading in the Zone," by Mark Douglas. This book has done more for my career than any other book with charts in it. Trading is a craft...allow your journey to begin.
rote memorization of market patterns is dumb, but that's what most of us did when we first started. When I first started, I had some success with "pennants", so I thought tath my my millions would come through them. I was limited to playing "pennants" and lost money in between their appearances due to lack of disciplince. Gradually, I learned to adopt other setups and shed my vision and fear of scarcity of good set-ups. Now, instead of waiting weeks-months for a good "pennant", I see "abundance" everywhere. And as my consciousness of set-ups expanded, something else happened. I began to analyze these set-ups in terms of context, rather than, "aha! that's a pennant, it will surely fly!" The journey towards $$$ is about expanding your consciousness of the market, rather than looking at it in a mechanical way... b/c the market is anything but mechanical. However, you can't just rely solely on "mindless" set-ups or context to get by in the market -- you need them both. But as the saying goes, "never walk under a ladder b/c it is badluck." Surely, a ladder is badluck because it has only two legs -- it is unstable. Methinks I am still missing a third ingredient (not psychology because price-action is psychology in action; nor money management => everyone who's paid their tuition has had to learn about money management) and I am actively seeking it out...
Interesting perspectives. Clearly there are different approaches to trading, but while I have heard many traders claim the need for intuition or a feel for the markets, I have never heard that from someone that I could verify to be a successful trader. From the people I know to be successful I have always heard the importance of understanding the reason for entering a trade, what to expect from the trade, and how to recognize the trade is not meeting expectations and move on. Soros is an exception, I have read that his trading is at least partly intuitive. Certainly there can be others and if someone truly has a feel for intraday market action then I expect they can basically mint money. It's not something that I am able to do. To me trading is a science, not an art. This fits with my strengths and it is very possible to create simple strategies without any deep insight that provide high returns and low drawdown. That doesn't mean that a noob can walk in off the street and do this. I think education and experience is required to get to the point of understanding that it really can be that simple and not mess it up by over complicating it. âBefore I studied the art, a punch to me is just like a punch, a kick just like a kick. After Iâve studied the art, a punch is no longer a punch, a kick no longer a kick. Now that I understand the art, a punch is just a punch, a kick is just a kick.â Bruce Lee
All traders are mechanical, unless they are guessing. It's just that the "intuitive" ones don't realize it.
Trading is math(computers) + pattern recognition (intelligence) Computers are good at math and very fast. People are good in pattern recognition, very fast, but very slow to react and emotional when making decision. You need both in automated fashion. Computer pattern recognition algorithms that work are proprietary. They are not sold other than some limited reach versions I know of. General pattern recognition combined with computational computer science is the ultimate tool, you cannot lose if you have one but you cannot buy any of that stuff.
Yesterday you said you base decisions from your read on price action. Bravo! Welcome to the world of intuitive market reading. I'm surprised that a guy who has been around as long as you cannot give himself the credit of simply having developed the ability to understand or read the market without apparent effort. No long-term successful trader is 100% mechanical or 100% intuitive. You need both and if you've been trading as long as your ET register date of 1999 then you most certainly have both.
Oh. Is that what I do? When you say "apparent effort", you mean it's not voodoo, but trading because of visual experience. Is this correct?