"Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability" "Commercial real estate loans made over the last decade - including retail properties, office space, industrial facilities, hotels and apartments - totaling $1.4 trillion will require refinancing in 2011 through 2014. <b>Nearly half are at present "underwater,"</b>........ http://cop.senate.gov/reports/library/report-021110-cop.cfm *Fail.* -Troll
A risk, no doubt. But keep in mind that the bears were positive the CRE collapse would happen in 2009...but didn't.
Yeah, lot of people predicted housing bubble would burst in 2005, it didn't happen., but it did happen in 2008.
Going to be one hell of drop in commercial real estate coming, its only starting now. There are dozens of empty store fronts near me and I expect even more empty store fronts in the months to come, so many people believe the commercial collapse already came and went, haha, they are going to be proven wrong over the next 3-5 years.
Jim Grant observed, in re commercial real estate and how it behaved in the Depression, that it's the slowest asset: it only goes down as leases expire and tenants leave for cheaper digs. Sam Zell: the smartest CRE guy out there. Sold out of his commercial REIT a few years ago; yours truly (ahem) got the absolute highest price on that REIT. I'm not stupid enough to think I know more than Sam Zell when it comes to CRE. He's saying in public that rents will drop 30%. I don't know what he says when the mikes aren't on, but I suspect it might, you know, vary from the public pronouncement. I find no evidence of him getting back into CRE, which is all I need to know. He's buying, he says publicly, debt and apartments.
Com RE a bubble because just like the morons that paid 2X and 3X for shacks, shmucks paid the sick rents charged , thinking they could then rob their customers and get the money back. No one says gfy to bandits when they should.
Timing is everything, that's my point. If you started shorting housing in 2005 it's likely you were insolvent by 2008.