The real dog and cat fight that looms for the democratic nomination

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ZZZzzzzzzz, Feb 7, 2008.

  1. Max Follmer
    The Huffington Post

    Looming Delegate Fight Over Florida And Michigan Races

    February 6, 2008 08:41 PM

    The split decision from Super Tuesday's coast-to-coast balloting has thrust the fight over the disputed delegations from Michigan and Florida back into the spotlight, now that neither Democrat can claim an outright delegate victory.

    Political pundits Wednesday forecast that the Hillary Clinton campaign would now make a renewed push to seat the delegates from The Wolverine and Sunshine States, given the neck-and-neck delegate count on the Democratic side.

    "It's easy to imagine that they could be the difference between Obama and Clinton even after the super delegates have made their decision," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia told The Huffington Post.

    According to projections from NBC news, Barack Obama was expected to rack up between 840 and 849 delegates following Super Tuesday balloting, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton.

    Delegates to the Democratic National Convention are awarded proportionally based on votes received in each congressional district. There are also a number of so-called "super delegates," Democratic Party elected officials and insiders, who are awarded a convention vote based on their position in the party.

    The Democratic Party had earlier sanctioned Michigan and Florida for leapfrogging ahead of other early voting states in the primary calendar by stripping them of their convention delegates, and each of the major candidates pledged not to campaign in those states.

    Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean was quoted by the St. Petersburg Times in June 2007 saying: "Their primary essentially won't count...Anybody who campaigns in Florida is ineligible for delegates."

    Barack Obama and John Edwards withdrew their names from the ballot in Michigan, leaving only Clinton and several minor candidates in the race. Clinton won the Jan. 17 primary with 55 percent over "uncommitted" which received 40 percent of the vote.

    Clinton also won the Jan. 30 Florida Primary, with 50 percent of the vote to Obama's 33 percent.

    The Obama camp derided the win as meaningless in an email sent to reporters on primary night, reminding the press that both candidates received zero delegates in the Florida primary.

    But Obama supporters also cried foul over Clinton's pre-election activities in the state, saying that two events she attended in the Sunshine State broke her pledge to respect the Democratic Party's sanctions and avoid campaigning in Florida.

    The Clinton campaign argued that the events were closed to the public, and therefore in line with the no-campaigning pledge.

    On primary night, Clinton also flew to Florida for a victory celebration alongside Reps. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Alcee Hastings.

    The Associated Press reported on Jan. 27 that Clinton had already vowed to try to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates:

    "I will try to persuade my delegates to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida," Clinton said at a campaign stop in Tennessee before flying to Sarasota.

    Congressional Quarterly's Craig Crawford, writing on his "Trail Mix" blog, forecast what was in store for the convention if the candidates became embroiled in a credential fight:

    First, the rival campaigns must compete behind the scenes for the support of credentials committee members - a contest that could prove to be the most important "primary" of all.

    Outside the backrooms, the Clinton campaign will surely mount a vigorous public relations drive aimed at turning the debate into a question of "voting rights" and "civil rights," hoping to put Obama in the position of seeming to oppose such civil liberties. And the Clinton team will argue that Democrats simply cannot afford to deny entry to two of the nation's biggest swing states in the general election.

    Already, pundits and party activists are raising the possibility that the Democratic Party might have to consider is a "re-do" in Michigan and Florida.

    Marc Ambinder wrote Wednesday that:

    Here is what might happen instead.

    The DNC will sanction new contests, probably caucuses.

    The Clinton will protest vociferously. Caucus? CAUCUS?

    There will be a big debate.

    Sabato told The Huffington Post that there had been "lots of credentials fight" over the years in the Democratic Party, but nothing quite like the "mess" looming in the current fight.

    He also said credentials fight doesn't bode well for the party heading into the general election.

    "When you get factions within the party believing that they have been treated unfairly, you have created the super-structure of defeat," Sabato said. "Some half of the party is going to feel cheated. That is exactly what you don't want your party activists to feel headed into a contested general election."
  2. Democratic dead-heat 'not good news' says Dean
    Feb 6 07:23 PM US/Eastern
    Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean on Wednesday voiced concern over the prospect of a brokered convention at the end of the party's White House nominating contests.

    "The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario," Dean said according to excerpts of an interview with NY1 television.

    In state nominating contests so far, no clear winner has emerged among Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the party's nomination ahead of November's presidential vote to replace George W. Bush in the White House.

    "I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April. But if we don't, then we're going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement," said Dean, who failed in his bid for the party's nomination in 2004.

    "Because I don't think we can afford to have a brokered convention -- that would not be good news for either party."

    A brokered convention has not been seen in decades, and harkens back to an era of shady political deal-making when powerbrokers and cash kings -- instead of regular voters -- chose one candidate over another at a raucous, smoke-filled convention hall.

    The comments by Dean highlighted the rising tensions among Democrats as rivals Obama and Clinton fight bitterly for delegate votes ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August, at which a nominee is officially selected.

    For more than 50 years, each party has selected delegates who favor one nominee over another by a significant margin well ahead of the convention, which exists mainly for ceremonial and celebratory purposes.

    The last conventions that required more than one ballot to designate nominees were in 1948 for the Republicans and 1952 for the Democrats.
  3. I'd love to see a big convention fight in either party. It's the heavyweight title fight of politics.

    Both parties are suffering self-inflicted wounds. They have gone overboard in opening up the nominating process to voters and severely downgrading the role of party officials and officeholders. While it seems obvious that voters should decide who the nominees are, in reality they are not in the best position to do so. You end up with flash in the pan candidates who may appeal to a segment of primary voters, but who either lack broad appeal or are not ready for the responsibilities of the office. For all the unsavory backroom connotations of old time conventions, the party elders know the candidates far better than primary voters.

    The primary calendar is also insane. Florida is a far more important state than any of the traditional early primary states. I don't blame them for wanting to have a say before a bunch of farmers in Iowa and bed and breakfast owners in NH decide who the nominees will be.

    The dilemma the democrats face is if they refuse to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates, voters in those states may take out their frustration on the democrats in the general election. I would say that is a perfectly legitimate response.
  4. I am hoping for a messy old style convention, great political theater. I see no way that Obama or Hillary would compromise to broker a deal together before the convention.

    By November though, both parties will be unified in support of their candidates, and I doubt whatever anger may be felt as a result of the messy process, those angry voters in a general election will vote against the candidate they hate the most...which is typically the opposition party.

  5. they will do as the script tells them to do.
  6. How's the RuPaul Revolution going?


  8. just fine... looks like there may be a brokered convention for the republicans. wonder what ron paul will get for his delegates? where is rudy? where is fred?

    so are you a hillary girl or an obama girl? i can't wait to hear.. i am on pins and needles. let me guess... you will wait till one pulls ahead then you will jump on their bandwagon.

    both are CFR puppets btw... both are pro war... do you know who obama's handlers are yet?
  9. So the "principled" RuPaul delegates and/or RuPaul himself are going to sell out to support one of the other republican candidates.

    Just following the script....

    Too funny.

  10. the republicans fought ron paul all the way including with diebold. along with a complicit msm it is very difficult to get a fair election. we will see what happens, i would personally prefer to go third party.

    just remember two names zzzz... larry sinclair and juanita broaddrick.

    #10     Feb 7, 2008