The rally is not supported by fund inflows, and is subject to collapse at any moment. Fund inflows in the third quarter were the lowest of the year, yet the indexes had huge gains, humm be very carefully here folks. The index futures have been a great tool for manipulating this price rise in the cash indexes.
The next 3 years will be the biggest bull run there ever was and now I will tell you the 2 reasons as to why. 1. US Congress enacting 401k reform laws. More and more workers ratcheting up the amount of contributions due to greater awareness 2. Real Estate no longer a great investment. Need to make more money somewhere and that avenue is the stock market. Nope, it wont be the hedge funds that will rule the next 3 years, but companies like Vanguard and Fidelity that will drive the rallies. 3% of the American public actually own stocks or mutual funds. You have a lot more ready to donate through the mutual fund avenue.
Americans have a negative savings rate. Americans spend any extra cash to service the debt loads. I would agree with you theory is the savings rate were much higher.
The real estate collapse will likely lead to a recession which will bring a slowdown in corporate profits which will then bring lower stock prices. What good is a Hedge Fund ruling the next 3 years? Hedge funds are not for the average investor, they were developed for investor who has assets in the millions. , the ELITEEEEEEEEEE.
These discussions are so f-cking Pollyannaish. The reason that most of you fish can't make money is because you can't decide what timeframe you're operating on and you spend all of your time forming trading hypotheses based on obtuse, inductive logic. Lemme guess⦠given the low US consumer savings/debt ratio, people will become increasingly less apt to pay $10 for razor blades, which means that you should short P&G, right?!